Toronto: Chow Leads Bradford 48% to 39% as Approval Slips

September 30, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - A new Liaison Strategies Toronto Pulse survey shows Mayor Olivia Chow leading Brad Bradford 48% to 39% among decided and leaning voters, a nine-point advantage. Chow's lead is slightly wider than in the previous survey, even as her job approval slips below half.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents from September 26 to September 27, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin is higher for subsamples. Results may not add to 100% due to rounding.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"Chow has a little more breathing room on the ballot, but not a stronger approval rating. She leads Bradford 48% to 39% among decided and leaning voters, compared with 47% to 40% in our September 22 release. Chris Alexander remains at 10%, with someone else at 3%. These are small changes."

"Among all voters, Chow has 41%, Bradford 33%, Alexander 8%, and someone else 3%, while 15% are undecided. Bradford has not lost ground on that measure: he was also at 33% in the previous survey. The headline gap is a useful snapshot, but there is still a meaningful group that has not chosen a candidate."

"The less comfortable number for Chow is her job approval. Forty-nine per cent approve, down from 52%, while 45% disapprove, up from 42%. Her net approval has narrowed from ten points to four."

"At the same time, the city-direction numbers have improved. Fifty per cent say Toronto is moving in the right direction, compared with 43% who say the wrong direction and 7% who are unsure."

"Bradford is making progress on familiarity. Thirty-six per cent have a favourable impression of him, up from 33%, while 38% have an unfavourable impression, up from 37%. The share unfamiliar with him has fallen from 19% to 15%, and 11% remain unsure."

"The gender divide is substantial. Among decided and leaning voters, Chow leads 56% to 32% among women, while Bradford leads 47% to 41% among men. Chow's advantage among women is much larger than Bradford's advantage among men."

"Geographically, Chow leads Downtown by 58% to 29%, in North York by 49% to 40%, and in Scarborough by 45% to 39%. Bradford leads in Etobicoke by 50% to 40%. Those regional samples are smaller and more variable, but the map still shows Bradford needing to build beyond his strongest part of the city."

"Alexander remains at 10% among decided and leaning voters as more residents form an opinion of him. His favourable rating is 23%, up from 21%, and his unfavourable rating is 26%, up from 23%. Thirty-five per cent are unfamiliar with him and another 16% are unsure."

"For Chow, the warning is that a lead can coexist with a much more divided assessment of her performance. For Bradford, the challenge is turning greater familiarity and a better favourable rating into additional votes. Neither can treat the other numbers in this survey as a substitute for winning support on the ballot."

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.