Ottawa Mayor's Race Tightens as Sutcliffe Faces Trouble With Undecided Voters
Mayor Mark Sutcliffe leads the Ottawa mayoral race, but 65% of undecided voters disapprove of the job he is doing.
June 18, 2026 (Ottawa, ON) - A new Ottawa Compass municipal survey conducted in partnership with Liaison Strategies finds Mayor Mark Sutcliffe leading the mayoral race, but with warning signs beneath the surface.
Among all voters, Sutcliffe leads with 24%, followed by Jeff Leiper at 21%, Alex Lawson at 12%, and Neil Saravanamuttoo at 6%. Thirty-seven percent of voters remain undecided.
Among decided and leaning voters, Sutcliffe leads at 38%, followed by Leiper at 31%, Lawson at 21%, Saravanamuttoo at 8%, and someone else at 1%.
Liaison surveyed a representative sample of 1,000 Ottawa residents from June 13 to 15, 2026. Results were weighted by age, gender, language and region. The margin of error for a comparable probability sample is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:
"On the surface, Sutcliffe leads. But the race is much less comfortable for him than the topline suggests. He is at 24% among all voters, with 37% undecided, and his job approval is underwater."
"Sutcliffe's approval stands at 41%, while 56% disapprove and 3% are not sure. Among undecided mayoral voters, only 32% approve of the job he is doing, while 65% disapprove."
"That is the problem for Sutcliffe. The undecided pool is not a neutral pool. These are voters who have not yet chosen an opponent, but most of them already disapprove of the mayor. If they break against him, this race changes quickly."
"The survey also finds Ottawa residents split sharply on the city's direction. Twenty-six percent say the city is moving in the right direction, while 48% say it is moving in the wrong direction and 26% are not sure."
"Sutcliffe still has the advantage of incumbency and he leads the field, but the fundamentals are weak. A mayor with 56% disapproval, only 26% saying the city is moving in the right direction, and nearly four in ten voters undecided is vulnerable."
"The mayoral tracking also shows movement over time. In April, Sutcliffe led with 46%, followed by Leiper at 37% and Lawson at 13%. In May, Sutcliffe was at 42%, Leiper at 36%, Lawson at 15%, and Saravanamuttoo at 5%. In June, Sutcliffe is at 38%, Leiper is at 31%, Lawson is at 21%, and Saravanamuttoo is at 8%."
"Lawson is the candidate with the most visible growth over the past three months. Leiper remains the closest challenger, but Lawson has moved from 13% in April to 21% in June among decided and leaning voters. The anti-incumbent vote is not consolidated."
"The regional picture also matters. Sutcliffe leads in the East, South, and West, but trails badly in Central Ottawa. Among decided and leaning voters, Sutcliffe is at 47% in the East, 48% in the South, and 40% in the West. In Central Ottawa, Leiper leads with 52%, compared to Sutcliffe at 19%."
"The race is geographically polarized. Sutcliffe's support is stronger outside the core, while Leiper dominates Central Ottawa. That leaves the question of whether the challenger field can consolidate enough outside the core to seriously threaten the mayor."
"The poll also finds affordability and city services weighing on the broader municipal environment. Housing affordability is the top issue at 26%, followed by transit at 18%, traffic at 16%, inflation at 11%, homelessness at 10%, and crime at 7%."
"Residents are also skeptical of City Hall's financial management. Only 35% are confident Ottawa City Council is managing the city's finances responsibly, while 63% are not confident."
"People are unhappy with the direction of the city and skeptical of Council's financial management. That is the environment the mayor has to run in."
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With more than a decade of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession.