Ontario: Liberals Lead PCs by 3 as Ford Approval Hits 26%

June 19, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Ontario Political Tracker from Liaison Strategies shows the Ontario Liberals opening a narrow lead over the Progressive Conservatives, while Premier Doug Ford's approval falls to its lowest point in the tracker.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Ontario Liberal Party led by John Fraser stands at 38%, followed by the Progressive Conservatives led by Doug Ford at 35%, the Ontario NDP led by Marit Stiles at 22%, the Green Party at 4%, and other parties at 1%.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Ontarians from June 12 to June 15, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison was ranked #1 for accuracy in Ontario in 2025, and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:

"The Liberals have moved from a tie to a 3-point lead. That is not a runaway lead, but the movement this month is against Ford. The PCs are down 2 points from May, the Liberals are up one, and the NDP is up 2."

"The more important number for Ford may be his own approval. Just 26% approve of the job he is doing as Premier, while 69% disapprove."

"The province's direction numbers are no better. Twenty-nine percent say Ontario is headed in the right direction, while 66% say it is headed in the wrong direction. That is an extremely difficult environment for an incumbent government."

"The survey also finds health care is a major pressure point. Sixty percent of Ontarians say someone in their household has had trouble getting timely health care in the past year, while 35% say no and 5% are unsure."

"Six in ten Ontarians say someone in their household had trouble getting timely care. That helps explain why only 31% trust the Ontario government to improve access to health care."

"When asked which health-care issue should be Ontario's top priority, 30% choose finding family doctors, followed by reducing emergency room waits at 23%, reducing surgery wait times at 17%, improving mental health care at 13%, and improving long-term care at 9%."

"The survey also finds 61% support using more privately run clinics if patients still pay with their OHIP card, while 33% oppose the idea and 7% are unsure. A slim majority, 51%, would support higher provincial health spending even if it meant a larger deficit, while 41% would not."

"The public is frustrated, but not ideological in only one direction. There is majority support for higher health spending even if it increases the deficit, and there is also majority support for more privately run clinics if patients still pay with OHIP. What Ontarians appear to want most is access."

"The regional picture remains competitive. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals lead in the 905 at 41% and Toronto at 46%. The PCs lead in Eastern Ontario at 43% and Southwestern Ontario at 38%, while the NDP leads in Northern Ontario at 46% and South Central Ontario at 37%."

"This is still a close race, but Ford's problem is that the political environment is getting worse for him. His party is trailing, his approval is at a tracker low, two-thirds say the province is going in the wrong direction, and health care is landing as a direct household concern."

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With more than a decade of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession.