Federal Tracker: Liberals Lead by 9 as Carney Approval Rebounds

June 15, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Federal Tracker from Liaison Strategies shows the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, holding a 9-point lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. The Liberals stand at 41% among decided and leaning voters, followed by the Conservatives at 32%, the NDP at 14%, and the Bloc Québécois at 6%.

The Green Party, People’s Party, and Other parties are each at 2%. Among all voters, the Liberals are at 36%, the Conservatives are at 27%, the NDP is at 12%, the Bloc is at 5%, the Greens, PPC, and Other parties are at 2% each, and 14% are undecided.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from May 31 to June 13, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing across landline and cellular phone networks. The sample includes a dedicated oversample of Quebec voters. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

“The Liberals have moved back to a 9-point lead this week. That is up from an 8-point lead last week, with the Liberals up one point to 41%, the Conservatives essentially unchanged at 32%, and the NDP down one point to 14%.”

“The broad story is stability, but the movement that is there favours the Liberals. The Conservatives remain stuck at 32%, while Carney’s personal approval has rebounded after hitting its lowest point in our tracker last week.”

“Carney’s approval is up 2 points to 57%, while disapproval is down 2 points to 37%. That leaves him at a net positive of 20 points. Last week was a warning sign for him; this week looks more like a correction.”

“Poilievre’s favourable rating is basically unchanged at 37%, while his unfavourable rating is down to 49%. That is an improvement, but he remains net negative by double digits and the Conservative vote share is not moving.”

“Avi Lewis is becoming much better known. His favourable rating is up slightly to 26%, but his unfavourable rating is also up to 23%. The bigger movement is familiarity: the share of voters saying they are not familiar with Lewis has fallen from 30% to 22%, the lowest we have recorded for him.”

“Regionally, the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, the Prairies (caution: small sample size), and British Columbia among decided and leaning voters. The Conservatives lead in Alberta. Ontario remains competitive, with the Liberals at 43% and the Conservatives at 38%. In British Columbia, the Liberals are at 39%, the Conservatives are at 29%, and the NDP is at 26%.”

“The younger vote remains a pressure point. Among voters aged 18 to 34, the Liberals are at 29%, the NDP is at 27%, and the Conservatives are at 24%. Among voters 65 and older, the Liberals are at 60%, which is still one of the foundations of their national lead.”

“For now, the Liberals are back to a 9-point lead and Carney has recovered some ground. The questions for next week are whether the Conservatives can get unstuck, and whether Lewis becoming better known helps the NDP or simply makes him more polarizing.”

-30-

Detailed Poll Report:

Detailed Tables:

About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.