Ontario: Ford in Freefall; Ontario Liberals Lead PCs

April 29, 2026 (Toronto, ON) – The latest Liaison Strategies survey for Ontario shows the PCs trailing the Liberals by 2 points. It is the first time the PCs have trailed since Liaison began its monthly tracking series of Ontario. The PCs led by Doug Ford would garner 36% of the decided and leaning vote compared to the Ontario Liberals at 38%. The Ontario NDP sits at 20%, with the Green Party at 4%.

Liaison was ranked #1 for accuracy in Ontario in 2025, and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Ontarians from April 25 to 26, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative stratified sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks.  For the total sample, the margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:

"The trend is always more important than a snapshot and since October the PCs have been bleeding support - sometimes one point per month, sometimes two. While the decay may have been slowed down by government advertising, the jet fiasco has pushed the PCs down even lower and they now find themselves in second place."

"To say that coverage has been negative for the past two weeks is an understatement. On file after file the PCs have been getting hammered."

"Meanwhile the leaderless Liberals are at 38%, first place, for the first time in our tracking. They lead in Toronto (44%) and the 905 (43%). The Ontario NDP are up too and are now at 40%, with leads in the North (37%) and South Central, Hamilton and Niagara (36%) where the PCs have fallen to third. In the remainder of the regions the PCs are leading. In southwest they lead the Liberals by 5 points, 40% to 35% and in Eastern they have a much more solid score with 45% (the Liberals come in at 34%).

"At the same time, the Ford government continues to struggle badly on approval. Just 27% of Ontarians approve of the job Doug Ford is doing, while 68% disapprove. Nearly two-thirds of Ontarians (65%) say the province is on the wrong track, compared to just 31% who think things are headed in the right direction."

"When you get past ballot numbers and into how people actually feel about Doug Ford, the picture gets worse not better."

"When asked if Ford cares about people like you, just 35% say he does while a majority, 61%, say he does not. The numbers are even weaker on trust. Only 30% say Ford is honest and trustworthy, compared to 65% who say he is not."

"Ford’s one relative strength remains leadership style. A majority (57%) say he is strong and decisive, compared to 38% who disagree. 

"However just 29% express high confidence (a great deal or quite a lot), while 65% have little or no confidence in Ford’s ability to manage taxpayer money."

"Lastly, a clear majority (62%) believe Ford only apologized about the jet purchase because he was caught, while just 29% think the apology was sincere. The Premier's walk back of the apology (it was a communication error not a lack of judgement) likely has not helped matters."

"The question now is whether this trend has legs, or if the PCs can stop the bleeding. So far, the government’s ad campaign hasn’t been enough. It’s possible things reset next month, and the summer lull gives them some breathing room as the legislature fades from view. However, this government has been around for a while, it has accumulated baggage. When voters turn on a politician they don't usually come back."

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Detailed Poll Report:

About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.