Federal Tracker: Liberals Lead by 11
April 27, 2026 (Toronto, ON) – The latest Weekly Federal Tracker from Liaison Strategies shows the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, leading by 11 points over the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives.
If a federal election were held today among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals would receive 45% of the vote, followed by the Conservatives at 34%, the NDP at 9%, and the Bloc Québécois at 6%. The Green Party and People's Party both stand at 2%.
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from April 13 to April 25, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. Each week, the rolling survey refreshes the sample by adding 500 new participants and removing the oldest 500 participants. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:
“It's another week of smooth sailing for the Liberals who continue to dominate after winning a crucial by election in Terrebonne."
"The Conservatives are up a point this week while the Liberals are flat, but that’s not much for them to celebrate, the regional breakdown still points to a commanding Liberal majority if the election were held today."
"Barring additional floor crossers, the Prime Minister will have another opportunity to pad his slim majority given the news that NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice will vacate his seat in Montreal. Theoretically this should be an easy pick-up for the Liberals since the seat is on the Island of Montreal, is surrounded by other Liberal seats, they are leading in Quebec by 19 province-wide, etc. However, by-elections are strange animals sometimes and a lot could happen between now and by-election day."
"It will be interesting to see if the NDP are able to recruit a high profile candidate who is able to compete, or, if this will mostly be a battle between the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberals. Lastly, will the Liberals pair this by election with another one? For a long while there were rumours Bill Blair and John Wilkinson would receive appointments - Blair is now in the UK, could Wilkinson be next to depart?"
"This by-election could also be paired with a potential by-election in Beaches-East York, where Liberal MP Nathaniel (Nate) Erskine-Smith is seeking the provincial Liberal nomination. There is no guarantee that Nate will win, but he has indicated he will resign regardless."
"We continue to track approval and favourability ratings for Mark Carney, Pierre Poilievre and Avi Lewis. Not much has changed this week: people still strongly approve of Carney, people do not have a favourable view of Mr. Poilievre and most Canadians do not know who Mr. Lewis is. Onwards!"
Detailed Poll Report:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.