Federal Tracker: Liberals Hold Double-Digit Lead; Carney Approval Slips
May 4, 2026 (Toronto, ON) – The latest Weekly Federal Tracker from Liaison Strategies shows the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, maintaining a double-digit lead over the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives.
If a federal election were held today among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals would receive 45% of the vote, followed by the Conservatives at 33%, the NDP at 9%, and the Bloc Québécois at 6%. The Green Party and People’s Party both stand at 2%, while other parties sit at 3%.
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from April 20 to May 2, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. This week begins a phased oversample of the Quebec population. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. Each week, the rolling survey refreshes the sample by adding 500 new participants and removing the oldest 500 participants. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:
"The Liberals continue to hold a comfortable national lead, but the regional picture is uneven. They are especially strong in Ontario, where they are hovering around 50%, and remain well ahead in Atlantic Canada. Quebec also continues to be favourable terrain for the Liberals, though the Bloc remains firmly in second."
"The Conservative problem is not Alberta or Saskatchewan. They lead the Liberals 48% to 33% in Alberta and 45% to 35% in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The problem is that those strengths are being cancelled out by Liberal leads in Ontario, Atlantic Canada, British Columbia, and Quebec."
"Carney’s approval has softened slightly this week, with 60% approving and 32% disapproving. That is still a very strong score, but it is no longer quite as frictionless as it was in earlier weeks. We will be keeping our eye carefully on this to see if it is the start of a new trend or just a weekly blip."
"Poilievre’s numbers have moved modestly, with 39% favourable and 52% unfavourable. Avi Lewis remains much less well known than either Carney or Poilievre, though awareness has ticked up slightly, with 35% saying they are not familiar with him, down a smidge from last week."
"The race is stable nationally, but not frozen underneath. The Liberals continue to lead, the Conservatives remain competitive in the West, and the leader numbers are starting to show some week-to-week movement."
Detailed Poll Report:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.