National Tracker: Liberals 42%, Conservatives 39%

April 23, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 42% (-1) to the Conservatives 39% (+2).

The rolling survey, conducted from April 20 to April 22, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:

The Conservatives have narrowed the national race today, gaining two points at the expense of both the Liberals—now at 42% (-1)—and the NDP, who dip to 9% (-1).

Time is running out, and the Conservatives are still contending with regional numbers that keep a minority government out of reach.

The Liberals continue to lead in Atlantic Canada (+7), Quebec (+15, with the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois tied at 24% for second), Ontario (+8), and British Columbia (+1).

Tomorrow’s numbers might show a tighter race - or just as easily, Conservative gains could fade, widening the Liberal lead once again.

We’ll know the final outcome soon enough, but there are still a few more days of tracking to go.

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.

As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.

About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.