Furey Leads Don Valley West By Election
October 21, 2024 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) shows former mayoral candidate, Anthony Furey, leading TDSB Trustee Rachel Chernos Lin in the race to replace the late Jaye Robinson.
Conducted from October 17-18, 2023, using interactive voice response technology, the poll surveyed 547 eligible Don Valley West voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.19%, 19 times out of 20. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).
"Among decided voters Anthony Furey is leading by 5 points over Rachel Chernos Lin, 38% to 33% with Lesley Stoyan the only other candidate to crack double digits (11%). Sam Robinson, son of late councillor Jaye Robinson, is in fourth with 6%," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies.
"Furey's lead is not insurmountable but if all things remain equal he is well positioned to win on November 4th."
"30% of the electorate is undecided, and while Stoyan is in third in this survey she is only capturing 2% of the vote among seniors. Conversely, Sam Robinson is at 10% among seniors. Given that the by election electorate is unlikely to mirror the general population, we may see Robinson overperform and Stoyan underperform based on these numbers."
"Chernos Lin is leading with seniors (41% to Furey's 32%) and those 35-49 (46-32). Furey meanwhile is leading strongly among the youngest cohort, 18-34 (55-19) and more modestly among those 50-64 (34-27)."
"While 58% of Torontonians approve of Mayor Chow's performance that number is lower in Don Valley West at 45%. Mayor Chow has a +26 net approval rating (approval - disapproval) in the City but only a +6 net approval in Don Valley West."
"67% of Chernos Lin voters approve of Mayor Chow, while 77% of Furey voters disapprove of the mayor. Meanwhile, almost half of undecided voters approve of the mayor's performance; 46% approve, 24% disapprove and 31% are not sure."
"The top issue in the ward is affordable housing at 29%, followed by traffic at 18% and transit at 12%. Undecided voters are focused on affordable housing (31%), transit (23%) and traffic (16%).
"Lastly, most voters in Don Valley West believe the city is headed in the wrong direction - even if they mostly approve of the mayor's performance, 34% say the city is moving in the right direction, 46% say the wrong direction. Almost half of undecided voters (the same ones that mostly approve of Chow) tell us the city is moving in the wrong direction. For now, among some voters, the mayor's numbers are holding steady even if they don't believe the city is improving" concluded Valentin.
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Read the report:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization whose mission is to promote and integrate economic, social and cultural interests of Ethnic communities into the mainstream of Canadian society. NEPMCC represents Canada’s Ethnic Press to the provincial and federal governments and is the major industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio and online outlets.