Federal Tracker: Liberals Open 17-Point Lead as Conservatives Fall Below 30%

August 31, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Liaison Strategies Weekly Federal Tracker shows the Liberals opening a 17-point lead over the Conservatives, with more than half of the sample now collected after the latest escalation in the Canada-U.S. trade war.

Unlike last week's tracker, which only included one day of interviewing after Prime Minister Mark Carney's August 21 statement on Canada-U.S. trade negotiations, this week's tracker includes a majority of interviews from the post-announcement period. Fielding ran from August 16 to August 29.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals are at 46%, the Conservatives are at 29%, the NDP is at 13%, the Bloc Québécois is at 6%, the Greens are at 3%, the People's Party is at 2%, and other parties are at 1%. This is the lowest the Conservatives have ever scored nationally in a Liaison survey.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from August 16 to August 29, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"This is the first tracker where the trade-war period is not just a sliver of the sample. More than half of this week's interviews were conducted after Carney's August 21 statement and the resulting escalation in the Canada-U.S. dispute."

"The movement is clear. The Liberals are up three points to 46%, the Conservatives are down three points to 29%, and the NDP is unchanged at 13%. That takes the Liberal lead from 11 points last week to 17 points this week."

"As far as Liaison tracking goes, 29% is a significant number for the Conservatives. It is the first time they have fallen below 30% in our federal tracker, and it comes at the same time that the Liberals are posting their largest lead in the series."

"Carney's approval has also moved sharply. He is up five points from last week to 64%, while disapproval is down four points to 27%. The prime minister is receiving a clear boost at the same moment the trade fight has become the dominant national story."

"Carney's approval is strongest in Quebec, where 80% approve, followed by Atlantic Canada at 69%, British Columbia at 67%, and Ontario at 62%. Alberta remains the outlier, where 43% approve and 52% disapprove."

"The Conservatives have a double problem. Their vote share has dropped below 30%, and Poilievre's personal numbers have deteriorated again. He is at 33% favourable and 55% unfavourable, which is his worst unfavourable number since January."

"Poilievre remains strong in Alberta, where 77% view him favourably, and in Manitoba/Saskatchewan, where 60% view him favourably. But he is deeply underwater in Quebec, Ontario, Atlantic Canada, and British Columbia. In BC, 65% have an unfavourable view of him."

"The Liberal advantage is again built on women and older voters. Among women, the Liberals lead 52% to 23%. Among voters 65 and older, the Liberals lead 60% to 24%. The Conservatives are still much more competitive with men, but even there the Liberals lead 41% to 37%."

"Younger voters remain the least settled part of the electorate. Among voters 18 to 34, the Liberals are at 33%, the Conservatives are at 27%, and the NDP is at 25%. That is a much more competitive three-way race than the national topline suggests."

"Avi Lewis's numbers are becoming more complicated. He is now slightly underwater nationally, at 30% favourable and 31% unfavourable, but he remains strongest among younger voters, where 45% view him favourably. That helps explain why the NDP is still much more alive with younger voters than it is nationally."

"The regional map is also telling. The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia. The Conservatives lead in Alberta, while Manitoba/Saskatchewan is tied at 38% Liberal and 38% Conservative. In Ontario, the Liberals lead 50% to 32%. In Quebec, the Liberals are at 46%, the Bloc is at 26%, and the Conservatives are at 17%."

"The political takeaway is that the trade-war period appears to be helping Carney and hurting the Conservatives, at least for now. The caveat is that this is still a rolling tracker, so the sample changes gradually rather than all at once. But compared to last week, this is a much cleaner read of the post-announcement environment, and the movement is strongly Liberal."

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.