Federal Tracker: Liberals Lead Conservatives By 9

May 18, 2026 (Toronto, ON) -  The latest Weekly Federal Tracker from Liaison Strategies shows the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, holding a 9-point lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister's approval continues to fall and is now at 56%.

If a federal election were held today among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals would receive 43% of the vote, followed by the Conservatives at 34%, the NDP at 11%, the Bloc Québécois at 6%, and the Greens, PPC, and Other parties at 2% each.

Among all voters, the Liberals stand at 35%, followed by the Conservatives at 29%, the NDP at 9%, the Bloc at 5%, the Greens at 2%, the PPC at 1%, and Other parties at 2%. Sixteen per cent of voters remain undecided.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from May 4 to May 16, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing across landline and cellular phone networks. The sample includes a dedicated oversample of Quebec voters. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.51 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

“The Liberals still have a clear national lead, but the topline has softened from the previous tracker, and the Conservatives have made the map more competitive in Western Canada.”

“Ontario remains the central problem for the Conservatives. A 49% to 36% Liberal lead in Ontario is the kind of number that makes it very difficult for the Conservatives to convert regional strength into a national lead.”

“Alberta is closer than people might expect, with the Conservatives ahead by only three points. British Columbia is also competitive, with the Liberals ahead by four. That is good news for the Conservatives compared to a uniform Liberal lead, but they still need movement in Ontario to change the overall picture.”

“Carney’s approval has come down, but at 56% he remains in strong territory. Poilievre, meanwhile, continues to have a favourability problem, with just over half of Canadians holding an unfavourable view of him. The Prime Minister's approval is down another two points this week - he is just one point ahead of his all time low in our tracking (55% approval), but that being said he still has a healthy approval rating.”

Detailed Poll Report:

About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.