Ottawa: Sutcliffe Leads Decided Voters; Tierney Opens at 11%
May 19, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Capital Tracker from the Ottawa Compass and Liaison Strategies shows Mayor Mark Sutcliffe leading among decided and leaning voters in an early Ottawa mayoral ballot, while Tim Tierney would enter the race in double digits.
Among decided and leaning voters, with Tierney included on the ballot, Sutcliffe leads with 37%, followed by Jeff Leiper at 32%, Alex Lawson at 14%, Tierney at 11%, Neil Saravanamuttoo at 5%, and someone else at 1%.
Without Tierney, Sutcliffe leads among decided and leaning voters with 42%, followed by Leiper at 36%, Lawson at 16%, Saravanamuttoo at 5%, and someone else at 2%. In other words, Sutcliffe's lead over Leiper is broadly similar in both ballot tests, but Tierney immediately becomes a meaningful fourth candidate when included.
The Tierney effect is most visible in the East. Among decided and leaning voters with Tierney included, he reaches 27% in East Ottawa, compared with 33% for Sutcliffe and 24% for Leiper. Tierney is much lower elsewhere, at 2% in the West, 7% in the South, and 6% in Central Ottawa.
Among all voters, 34% are undecided when Tierney is included. Without Tierney, the undecided rate rises to 41%. Sutcliffe, Leiper, and Lawson hold the same top-line vote shares among all voters in both versions of the ballot, while Tierney's inclusion appears to draw down the undecided pool.
Sutcliffe's job approval stands at 41%, down four points from April, while disapproval is 49%, up two points. Only 23% of Ottawa residents say the city is moving in the right direction, virtually unchanged from 22% last month, while 47% say it is moving in the wrong direction and 30% are not sure.
The survey also finds housing affordability continuing to lead the issue agenda at 23%, down one point from April, followed by transit at 19%, traffic at 15%, inflation at 13%, homelessness at 9%, crime at 7%, and something else at 10%.
The Ottawa Compass engaged Liaison Strategies to survey a random sample of 1,000 Ottawa residents from May 8 to May 10, 2026, using IVR technology. Respondents were reached through random digit dialling across landline and cellular phone networks. The data was weighted to 2021 Census targets. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 3.09 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison was ranked first for accuracy in Ontario in 2025 and second nationally in the 2025 federal election.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:
"Among decided and leaning voters, Sutcliffe remains in front, but it is a competitive field. With Tierney included, Sutcliffe is at 37%, Leiper is at 32%, Lawson is at 14%, and Tierney opens at 11%."
"Tierney's entry does not knock Sutcliffe out of first place, and it does not push Leiper out of second. What it does do is add another double-digit candidate to the decided-and-leaning ballot, which makes the challenger field more crowded."
"Regionally, Tierney's strength is very concentrated. In East Ottawa, he is at 27% among decided and leaning voters, only six points behind Sutcliffe and ahead of Leiper. But in the West, South, and Central Ottawa, he is in single digits. If he enters, the first question is whether he can turn an East-end base into a citywide campaign."
"The undecided numbers are still important, but the decided-and-leaning numbers tell us where the race stands once voters are pushed. With Tierney in, 34% are undecided among all voters. With Tierney out, that rises to 41%. His name appears to move some voters out of undecided without dramatically changing the order of the race."
"For Sutcliffe, the race is still manageable but not comfortable. He leads both decided-and-leaning ballot tests, but his approval is underwater and down from April. Voters can prefer the incumbent and still be unhappy with the way the city is going."
"For Leiper and Lawson, Tierney's entry complicates the challenger field. Leiper remains the strongest alternative to Sutcliffe, especially in Central Ottawa, while Lawson continues to show strength in the West. But a Tierney candidacy would add another recognizable name and make the anti-incumbent vote less straightforward."
"The city direction number is basically unchanged from last month, and that is the problem underneath all of this. Only about one-in-four residents think Ottawa is moving in the right direction. That creates room for challengers, but the ballot shows that no single challenger has consolidated that dissatisfaction yet."
Detailed Poll Report:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.