Toronto Deep Dive: Chow Is Known. Bradford Is Still Introducing Himself.

Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford are in very different positions.

Chow is already well known to Torontonians. Voters have largely made up their minds about her. They may approve or disapprove, but very few are still unsure.

Bradford’s numbers tell a different story. He has support, and the race is much closer among voters who know him. But he still has a name recognition problem.

That is the main takeaway from our May Toronto survey released yesterday.

Overall, 54% of Torontonians approve of Chow’s performance as mayor, while 41% disapprove. Only 4% are not sure. Those numbers can move, but there are not many voters left who do not already have a view of her.

Bradford has a 38% favourable rating compared to 28% unfavourable. That is a positive score. But 27% say they are not familiar with him, and another 6% are not sure.

In other words, about one-third of the city either does not know Bradford or has not yet made up its mind about him. That is the challenge for his campaign.

This matters because the ballot looks very different once voters know both candidates.

Among voters who are familiar with Bradford and have a view of Chow, Chow leads Bradford by just 3 points, 43% to 40%. Another 8% support someone else and 9% are undecided.

That is a much more competitive race than the topline number.

But among voters who are not familiar with Bradford, the race has barely taken shape. Sixty-seven percent are undecided. Chow is at 17%, Bradford is at 11%, and someone else is at 5%.

That is both good news and bad news for Bradford.

The good news is that voters who do not know him are not strongly against him. Most are simply undecided. The bad news is that more than a quarter of the city still does not know him, while Chow is known by almost everyone.

The numbers also show that name recognition is not enough on its own.

Among voters who have a favourable view of Bradford, 59% vote for him. But 21% still vote for Chow and 13% are undecided. He has support among voters who like him, but he has not converted all of them.

Among voters who have an unfavourable view of Bradford, the race is effectively over. Chow gets 72%, Bradford gets 15%, someone else gets 9%, and only 4% are undecided.

So Bradford’s challenge is not just to become better known. It is to become better known without becoming better disliked.

There is another important point. Bradford has not fully consolidated the anti-Chow vote.

Among voters who disapprove of Chow, 42% have a favourable view of Bradford. But 23% have an unfavourable view of him and 29% are not familiar with him.

That leaves a lot of room for a challenger. But it also shows that opposition to the incumbent does not automatically turn into support for Bradford.

Among voters who approve of Chow, Bradford is not especially radioactive either. Thirty-six percent have a favourable view of him, while 32% have an unfavourable view.

That tells us Bradford’s image has not yet fully polarized around Chow. Some voters can like both. That could help him if he wants to be seen as constructive, but it could hurt him if the election becomes a sharper choice.

The demographic pattern is also worth watching. Bradford is better known among men than women. Seventy-six percent of men are familiar with him, compared with 70% of women. His favourable number is also much higher among men, 47% compared with 32% among women.

By age, familiarity rises with older voters. Only 66% of 18-34 year olds are familiar with Bradford, compared with 77% among voters 50-64 and 78% among voters 65 and older. Regionally, his familiarity is fairly even, but his favourability is strongest in Etobicoke and Scarborough.

The numbers tell us Chow’s campaign is operating in a different environment than Bradford’s. Chow’s advantage is that voters already know her. Her risk is that voters also already know what they do not like.

Bradford’s opportunity is that many voters still have not made up their minds about him. His risk is that becoming better known does not guarantee becoming better liked.

That is why name recognition is the next major test for Bradford. If his unfamiliar voters move toward him, the race tightens. If they move toward Chow or become unfavourable, Chow’s lead becomes much harder to dislodge.

For now, Chow is the known incumbent. Bradford is the partly known challenger. And in Toronto, that difference is doing a lot of work.

David Valentin is a Principal at Liaison Strategies