Federal Tracker: Liberals Lead Conservatives by 12 as Poilievre Improves Slightly

September 14, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Liaison Strategies Weekly Federal Tracker shows the Liberals holding a 12-point lead over the Conservatives among decided and leaning voters, while Pierre Poilievre's favourability has improved slightly from last week.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals are at 44%, the Conservatives are at 32%, the NDP is at 14%, the Bloc Québécois is at 6%, the People's Party is at 2%, the Greens are at 2%, and other parties are at 1%.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from August 30 to September 12, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"This week is a modest tightening from a Liberal lead that had become unusually large. The Liberals are at 44% and the Conservatives are at 32%, so the Conservatives have recovered a point, but they remain well behind."

"The Conservatives are back above 30, but they are still in a difficult national position. The Liberal lead is smaller than it was two weeks ago, but a 12-point lead is still a very comfortable advantage."

"Carney's approval is the most important number in the release. It is 66% for a second consecutive week. That means the Liberals are not just leading on party brand; their prime minister remains personally popular."

"Carney's approval is especially strong in Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and British Columbia. Alberta remains the exception, where 48% approve and 46% disapprove. That is still competitive territory for Carney in a province that is usually very difficult for Liberals."

"Poilievre's numbers have improved this week. His favourability is up to 36% and his unfavourable number has fallen to 51%. That is movement in the right direction, but he is still 15 points underwater nationally."

"The regional picture remains the challenge for the Conservatives. They lead in Alberta and the Prairies, but the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia. In Ontario, the Liberals lead 47% to 34%. In Quebec, the Liberals are at 45%, the Bloc is at 26%, and the Conservatives are at 18%."

"The gender split is stark. Among women, the Liberals lead by 24 points, 49% to 25%. Among men, the race is tied at 39% apiece. The Conservatives cannot close the national gap if women remain this far out of reach."

"Age is also doing a lot of work for the Liberals. Among voters 65 and older, the Liberals lead the Conservatives 56% to 28%. Younger voters are more fragmented, with the Liberals at 35%, the Conservatives at 28%, and the NDP at 24% among voters 18 to 34."

"Avi Lewis is now slightly positive nationally, at 31% favourable and 30% unfavourable. He is not reshaping the race on his own, but his profile is becoming more defined. He is strongest with younger voters and in British Columbia, while resistance is higher in Alberta and the Prairies."

"The national story is steadier than the week-to-week numbers can sometimes make it look. The Liberals have come down from the high point of their post-trade-war advantage, the Conservatives have recovered slightly, and Carney remains the central reason the Liberal position is so strong."

-30-

Detailed Poll Report:

Detailed Tables:

About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.