Federal Tracker: Liberals Lead by 14, NDP Edges Up to 15%

September 21, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Liaison Strategies Weekly Federal Tracker shows the Liberals leading the Conservatives by 14 points among decided and leaning voters, while the NDP has edged up to 15%.

The Liberals are at 45%, up one point from last week, followed by the Conservatives at 31%, down one, and the NDP at 15%, up one. The Bloc Québécois is at 6%, the Greens are at 2%, the People's Party is at 1%, and other parties are at 1%.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from September 6 to September 19, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, and is higher for subsamples. Results may not add to 100% due to rounding.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"The Conservatives have not built on last week's modest recovery. The gap is back to 14 points, with the Liberals at 45% and the Conservatives at 31%. These are small weekly changes, but there is no sustained narrowing of the Liberal lead in the latest results."

"The NDP has moved from 13% two weeks ago to 14% last week and 15% now. That is a modest improvement, and it has come without pulling the Liberals below the mid-40s. For the Conservatives, a somewhat stronger NDP has not yet translated into a more competitive national race."

"This is a rolling survey. Each release combines two weeks of interviews, so this week's results share a week of interviewing with the previous release. A one-point movement is minor variability."

"Carney's approval is 65%, compared with 66% last week, while 28% disapprove and 7% are unsure. His appeal still extends well beyond the Liberal vote: among all respondents, 40% would vote Liberal, but nearly two-thirds approve of his performance as prime minister."

"The contrast among younger Canadians is particularly interesting. Seventy-one per cent of those aged 18 to 34 approve of Carney, yet among decided and leaning voters in that age group, the Liberals have 35%, the Conservatives 28%, and the NDP 24%. Approving of the prime minister is not the same thing as choosing his party."

"Poilievre is at 35% favourable and 51% unfavourable, compared with 36% and 51% last week. His strongest ratings are in Alberta, where 69% view him favourably, and the Prairies, at 61%. In Ontario, 33% view him favourably and 57% unfavourably; in Quebec, those numbers are 15% and 65%. His personal standing is much weaker in the two largest provinces than in his western strongholds."

"Ontario gives the Liberals a 48% to 33% advantage among decided and leaning voters. In Quebec, they are at 45%, ahead of the Bloc at 25% and the Conservatives at 18%. The Conservatives lead 51% to 30% in Alberta and 42% to 37% in the Prairies. Those regional results carry more uncertainty than the national numbers, but they show why the Conservative national total remains difficult to translate into a broad challenge to the Liberals."

"Lewis is at 32% favourable and 30% unfavourable nationally. His favourable rating is 44% among Canadians aged 18 to 34 and 45% in British Columbia. Those are also places where the NDP runs above its national vote share: 24% among younger decided and leaning voters and 21% in B.C."

"There is still a large audience that has not settled on a view of Lewis. Twenty-six per cent are unsure and 13% are unfamiliar with him. The NDP's recent gains give it something to build on, but turning that undecided opinion into support remains a substantial task."

"Among all voters, the Liberals have 40%, the Conservatives 26%, the NDP 12%, the Bloc 5%, the Greens 2%, and the People's Party 1%, with 14% undecided. The Liberals retain a sizeable advantage even before leaning voters are included."

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.