Federal Tracker: Liberals Lead by 6 as Conservatives Narrow Gap

July 13, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Weekly Federal Tracker from Liaison Strategies shows the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, holding a 6-point lead over Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals stand at 41%, followed by the Conservatives at 35%, the NDP at 14%, the Bloc Québécois at 6%, the Green Party at 2%, and the People's Party and Other parties at 1% each.

Among all voters, the Liberals are at 36%, the Conservatives are at 31%, the NDP is at 12%, the Bloc is at 5%, the Greens and PPC are at 1% each, Other parties are at 0%, and 14% are undecided.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from June 28 to July 11, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across landline and cellular phone networks. The data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"The Liberal lead has narrowed from 9 points last week to 6 points this week. The Liberals are down two points, the Conservatives are up one, and the NDP is unchanged. It is real movement toward a more competitive national race, but we have see tightening before only to see the Liberals reclaim the lead after a week or two. The question is if the Conservatives will retain their gains."

"A 6-point lead is still a lead, but it is the narrowest Liberal advantage we have seen in several tracker releases. The Conservatives are not ahead, and they are not tied, but they have cut into the gap enough that the national picture looks less settled than it did a week ago."

"Carney's approval is 56%, with 36% disapproving and 8% not sure. That is down two points on approval from last week, while disapproval is up one. His lowest approval in our tracker remains 55%, which he reached on January 5 and again on June 8, so this is not a new low. But it is a step down from the 58% approval he held over the previous two weeks."

"Poilievre is having his best week in a while. Thirty-nine per cent have a favourable view of him, 48% have an unfavourable view, 8% are not sure, and 5% are not familiar with him. His favourable number is up two points and his unfavourable number is down two points from last week. His unfavourable number has not been this low since June 22, when it was 47%."

"Avi Lewis is stable nationally. Twenty-eight per cent have a favourable view of him, 27% have an unfavourable view, 23% are not sure, and 21% are not familiar with him. His favourable and unfavourable numbers are unchanged from last week, while the not familiar number is down one point."

"Lewis continues to look stronger with younger voters and in British Columbia. Among voters aged 18 to 34, his favourable rating is 44%. In BC, it is 47%, which is his strongest regional number. But he is also at 44% unfavourable among voters aged 35 to 49, so the more people know him, the more divided the reaction becomes."

"British Columbia remains one of the more interesting regions. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals are at 38%, the Conservatives are at 35%, and the NDP is at 23%. The NDP remains much stronger in BC than nationally, but they are still in third, and the Liberal-Conservative race there is close."

"The age split is also worth watching. Among voters aged 18 to 34, the Liberals are at 33%, the Conservatives are at 32%, and the NDP is at 23%. Among voters 65 and older, the Liberals lead 54% to 30%. The Liberals still have a strong advantage with older voters, but the youngest age group is effectively tied between the Liberals and Conservatives."

"Overall, the Liberals remain ahead, but the Conservatives have narrowed the race. The next question is whether this is a one-week tightening or the start of a more durable shift. For now, the Liberals lead, but the margin is smaller and the Conservatives have a better week on both vote intention and Poilievre's personal numbers."

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.