Toronto: Chow 49%, Bradford 40%; World Cup Gets Positive Reviews

July 6, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - A new Liaison Strategies Toronto Pulse survey shows Mayor Olivia Chow holding a 9-point lead over Councillor Brad Bradford among decided and leaning voters, while Bradford continues to gain ground.

If a mayoral election were held today, Chow would receive 49% among decided voters, followed by Bradford at 40% and someone else at 10%. In May, Chow stood at 50%, Bradford at 37%, and someone else at 13%.

The survey also finds 61% of Torontonians say hosting World Cup matches in Toronto has been good for the city, while 29% say it has been bad and 10% are not sure. Asked about future major international sporting events, 63% support Toronto hosting more of them, while 25% oppose and 12% are not sure.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents from June 28 to June 30, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"This is still Olivia Chow's race. She leads by 9 points among decided voters and 8 points among all voters. But the movement since May is toward Bradford. Among decided voters, Chow is essentially flat, moving from 50% to 49%, while Bradford is up from 37% to 40%."

"Among all voters, Bradford has also moved from 28% to 32%, while undecided has dropped from 24% to 20%. So the question is not whether Bradford has momentum. He does. The question is whether he has enough time and runway to make the race genuinely tied."

"Chow's job approval is still positive, but it has softened. Fifty-one per cent approve of the job she is doing as mayor, while 43% disapprove and 6% are not sure. That is down from 54% approval in May and is her lowest approval since September 2025."

"The direction-of-city number is probably the most important warning sign for City Hall. Right direction and wrong direction are now tied at 46%. In May, right direction was 50% and wrong direction was 46%. The floor has not collapsed, but the mood has clearly cooled."

"Bradford's advantage is that his vote number is moving. His problem is that he is still not fully introduced to the city. Twenty-nine per cent have a favourable impression of him, 23% have an unfavourable impression, 13% are not sure, and 35% say they are not familiar with him."

"That means nearly half the city either does not know Bradford or has not made up its mind about him. There is an opportunity in that, but also a risk. Voters are open to learning more about him, but he is not yet as defined as the mayor."

"Regionally, Chow remains dominant downtown, where she leads Bradford 69% to 23% among decided voters. Bradford leads in Etobicoke, 55% to 35%, and the race is closer in North York and Scarborough. The geography of this race is very clear: Chow is strongest in the core, Bradford's path runs through the suburbs."

"On the World Cup, the public verdict is more positive than negative. Sixty-one per cent say hosting World Cup matches has been good for Toronto, including 23% who say very good. Twenty-nine per cent say it has been bad."

"The caveat is that the disruption is real. Eighteen per cent say World Cup crowds, road closures, or events changed their commute or travel plans, and another 18% say they avoided downtown. Downtown residents are much more likely to say their travel changed."

"Even so, the broader event-hosting question is favourable. Sixty-three per cent support Toronto hosting more major international sporting events in the future, while 25% oppose. That suggests people can be frustrated by the disruption and still see value in the event."

"The political story is that Chow is ahead, Bradford is gaining, and the city's mood is becoming more mixed. The civic story is that Torontonians are largely positive about the World Cup, but they are also living through the costs and inconvenience of hosting it."

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.