Federal Tracker: Liberals Lead by 14 as Carney Approval Hits 66%

September 7, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Liaison Strategies Weekly Federal Tracker shows the Liberals holding a 14-point lead over the Conservatives, while Prime Minister Mark Carney's approval has climbed to 66%.

This is the first weekly tracker in which the entire sample was collected after Carney's August 21 statement suspending Canada-U.S. trade negotiations and announcing that Canada would match new U.S. tariffs dollar for dollar. Fielding ran from August 23 to September 5.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals are at 45%, the Conservatives are at 31%, the NDP is at 13%, the Bloc Québécois is at 6%, the People's Party is at 2%, the Greens are at 2%, and other parties are at 1%.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from August 23 to September 5, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"The Liberal lead has narrowed from last week, but not by much. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals lead the Conservatives by 14 points, 45% to 31%. That is still a very strong national position."

"The important context is that this is now a fully post-announcement sample. Last week, the tracker had only moved partway into the post-trade-war period. This week, every interview was conducted after Carney suspended negotiations with the United States and framed the fight as a question of Canadian sovereignty."

"The numbers suggest the trade fight is continuing to work for Carney. His approval is now 66%, with only 26% disapproving. That is an exceptionally strong approval number for a sitting prime minister."

"Carney's approval is especially strong in Quebec, where 80% approve, followed by Atlantic Canada at 75% and British Columbia at 70%. Alberta remains the exception. There, 44% approve and 50% disapprove."

"The Conservatives have recovered slightly from last week, but they are still in a difficult position. They are at 31% among decided and leaning voters after falling below 30% for the first time in Liaison tracking last week. That is a better number, but not a good one."

"Poilievre's personal numbers remain a major problem. He is at 34% favourable and 54% unfavourable nationally. In Quebec, 71% have an unfavourable view of him. In British Columbia, it is 65%. In Ontario, it is 58%."

"The regional picture still favours the Liberals. They lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia. The Conservatives lead in Alberta and the Prairies. In Ontario, the Liberals lead 49% to 33%. In Quebec, the Liberals are at 45%, the Bloc is at 26%, and the Conservatives are at 18%."

"The Liberal advantage continues to lean heavily on women and older voters. Among women, the Liberals lead 50% to 24%. Among voters 65 and older, the Liberal lead is 59% to 27%. Men are closer, but the Liberals still lead 41% to 38%."

"Younger voters remain much more fragmented. Among voters 18 to 34, the Liberals are at 36%, the Conservatives are at 27%, and the NDP is at 23%. That is where the NDP remains most competitive."

"Avi Lewis is now essentially even with the public: 30% favourable and 31% unfavourable. He is strongest with younger voters, where 43% view him favourably, but he is also facing more resistance than earlier in the year."

"For now, the national picture is less volatile than it looked last week. The Liberals have come down slightly, the Conservatives have recovered slightly, and the NDP has edged up. But the broader story is still Carney. He is personally popular, the trade fight is keeping him on favourable terrain, and the Conservatives have not found a way to move the national conversation back onto ground that works better for them."

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.