Alberta: UCP & NDP Locked in Tight Race

Toronto, ON (January 22, 2026) – A new Liaison Strategies survey finds Alberta’s two main parties in a competitive contest, with the United Conservative Party (UCP) holding a narrow edge over the Alberta NDP.

If a provincial election were held today, 46% of voters would support the UCP Party, compared with 44% for the NDP.

“The topline numbers show a close race between the two main parties with enough voters undecided that it's anyone's game,” said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. “Regionally, we are seeing the NDP ahead in Edmonton, while the UCP lead outside major centres. In Calgary the UCP lead by 5 points.”

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Albertans from January 7-11, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks.  For the total sample, the margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. In the 2025 Federal Election, Liaison's Alberta numbers proved incredibly accurate. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

Deepening Pessimism and the Search for Solutions

Regional Battlegrounds and Demographic Splits

The path to victory remains distinctly different for both major parties. The NDP continues to dominate Edmonton with 60% support compared to the UCP’s 29%. Conversely, the UCP holds a lead in the Rest of Alberta (54% to 36%).

The critical battleground of Calgary shows a competitive landscape, with the UCP leading at 48% and the NDP trailing at 43%. Demographically, younger voters (ages 18-34) favour the NDP (47%), while those aged 65 and older strongly support the UCP (54%).

Premier Approval and Leadership Trust

Despite the tight horse race, Albertans are divided on the Premier’s job performance. 41% of Albertans approve of Danielle Smith’s performance as Premier, while 46% disapprove.

Sentiment regarding the province's general direction is similarly split, with 43% believing Alberta is on the right track and 45% stating it is heading in the wrong direction.

When asked which leader they trust most to manage key files, Albertans are divided by the issue:

• Healthcare: Naheed Nenshi (NDP) leads with 39% trust, while Danielle Smith (UCP) sits at 34%.
• Education: Nenshi also leads on education at 39% trust compared to Smith’s 33%.
• The Economy: Danielle Smith holds the advantage with 39% trust over Nenshi’s 34%.

“What stands out is how clearly Albertans differentiate between issues. Nenshi has an advantage on healthcare and education, while Smith leads on the economy," continued Valentin.

"This is one of the first surveys to measure the rebranded Progressive Tory Party, and, at least for now, the rebrand is not working too well with only 2% of Albertans indicating they would vote for the Progressive Tories. That being said, there is certainly an opportunity for Peter Guthrie to introduce himself and it's possible support could grow," concluded Valentin.

Detailed Poll Report:

About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.