Toronto: Chow 48%, Bradford 40%; North York Tightens
Chow leads Bradford by eight points citywide, but North York is nearly tied. Bradford leads among men while Chow holds a much larger advantage among women.
October 6, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - A new Liaison Strategies Toronto Pulse survey finds Mayor Olivia Chow at 48% and Brad Bradford at 40% among decided and leaning voters, an eight-point lead. The citywide result is little changed, but North York is nearly tied, with Chow at 45% and Bradford at 44%. Chris Alexander receives 9%, while 3% would vote for someone else.
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents from October 3 to October 4, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin is higher for subsamples, including decided and leaning voters. Results may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:
"The citywide numbers have hardly moved. Chow was at 48% in our September 30 release and remains there. Bradford has gone from 39% to 40%, while Alexander has gone from 10% to 9%. Chow retains the advantage, but Bradford is close enough to keep the contest competitive."
"North York is the place where the latest result looks different. Chow led there 49% to 40% last time. This survey puts them at 45% and 44%. That regional sample is smaller, so we should not overstate the movement, but neither campaign can read the eight-point citywide gap as an eight-point cushion everywhere."
"Downtown is still doing a great deal of work for Chow. She leads Bradford 59% to 27% there, a 32-point gap. Bradford leads 51% to 41% in Etobicoke, while Chow is ahead 44% to 40% in Scarborough. Those contrasting results leave Bradford with a very different task in each part of Toronto."
"The split between women and men is even sharper than the citywide number suggests. Chow leads 57% to 30% among women, while Bradford leads 49% to 39% among men. His ten-point advantage among men does not offset her 27-point advantage among women. Closing that gap is a substantial challenge for his campaign."
"Bradford is no longer dealing primarily with voters who have never heard of him. Fourteen per cent are unfamiliar with him, compared with 24% in our September 9 release. But his unfavourable rating is now 39%, against 35% favourable. He needs to persuade people who already have an opinion, not simply introduce himself to those who do not."
"His personal ratings also vary sharply by region. In Etobicoke, 47% view Bradford favourably and 26% unfavourably. Downtown, those figures are 27% and 54%. In North York, where the ballot is nearly tied, 33% have a favourable impression and 41% an unfavourable one. "
"Chow's approval is back at 50%, with 44% disapproving and 6% unsure. Last time, those figures were 49%, 45%, and 6%. That is a small improvement, not a dramatic rebound. Her job rating remains divided even though she is still ahead on the ballot."
"The city-direction result is slightly more positive than negative: 49% say right direction, 44% say wrong direction, and 7% are unsure. Etobicoke is particularly interesting. It gives Bradford his strongest ballot result, but 51% there say the city is moving in the right direction, compared with 42% who say the wrong direction."
"Alexander has 9% among decided and leaning voters. Twenty-two per cent view him favourably, 27% unfavourably, 17% are unsure, and 34% are unfamiliar with him. He has less support than either of the two leading candidates, but his supporters cannot simply be counted as available votes for Bradford or Chow."
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.