Toronto: Chow 47%, Bradford 40%, Alexander 10%

August 7, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - A new Liaison Strategies Toronto survey shows Mayor Olivia Chow leading Councillor Brad Bradford by 7 points among decided and leaning voters, while former Conservative cabinet minister Chris Alexander begins the race at 10%.

Among decided and leaning voters, Chow receives 47%, Bradford receives 40%, Alexander receives 10%, and someone else receives 3%. In the previous Toronto Pulse survey, before Alexander was included on the ballot, Chow stood at 49%, Bradford at 41%, and someone else at 10%.

Among all voters, Chow is at 38%, Bradford is at 32%, Alexander is at 8%, someone else is at 3%, and 20% are undecided.

Alexander, a former Conservative cabinet minister, former Canadian ambassador to Afghanistan, and former federal immigration minister, remains unfamiliar to most Torontonians. Fourteen per cent have a favourable impression of him, 11% have an unfavourable impression, 14% are not sure, and 61% are not familiar with him.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents from August 4 to August 5, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin is higher for sub-samples. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"This is still Olivia Chow's race. Among decided and leaning voters, Chow leads with 47%, Bradford is at 40%, and Alexander starts at 10%. That is not enough to put Alexander in contention today, but it is enough to matter."

"The right way to read Alexander's number is that he has entered the race with some immediate support, but very little municipal definition. Sixty-one per cent of Torontonians say they are not familiar with him. That is the biggest number in his profile. He is a former federal cabinet minister and former ambassador, but most municipal voters have not yet formed an opinion of him."

"Alexander also changes the strategic problem for Bradford. In the last Toronto Pulse, Chow led Bradford 49% to 41% among decided and leaning voters. With Alexander included, Chow is at 47%, Bradford is at 40%, and Alexander is at 10%. The ballot is not directly comparable because Alexander was not included last time, but the basic picture is that Chow remains ahead and Bradford no longer has the centre-right lane entirely to himself."

"Bradford's own numbers are a little rougher this week. His favourable impression is 29%, while his unfavourable impression is 30%. In the previous survey, he was at 31% favourable and 26% unfavourable. He is becoming slightly better known, but not in the direction he would want."

"Chow's approval remains positive but not dominant. Fifty per cent approve of the job she is doing as mayor, while 43% disapprove and 6% are not sure. That is essentially stable compared to the previous Toronto survey, when she was at 51% approve and 43% disapprove."

"The city mood remains the warning sign for City Hall. Right direction and wrong direction are tied again at 46% apiece. That means Chow can be personally ahead while voters remain split on whether Toronto is actually headed in the right direction."

"The safety numbers are mixed in a way that matters politically. Most residents say they feel safe living in Toronto, with 68% saying very or somewhat safe. But 51% say Toronto is less safe than it was one year ago, compared to just 9% who say it is safer. That is the tension: people may not feel unsafe day to day, but many think the trend line is getting worse."

"That concern carries into large outdoor events. Sixty-one per cent say they would feel safe attending a festival or other large outdoor event, but 37% would feel unsafe. And when asked whether they support a greater police and security presence at large street festivals, even if that raises costs, 81% support it. That is an overwhelming number."

"The geography of the mayoral race is also familiar. Chow leads Downtown, in North York, and in Scarborough, while Bradford's strongest region is Etobicoke. Among decided and leaning voters, Bradford leads in Etobicoke 56% to 33%, while Chow leads Downtown 57% to 31%, in North York 50% to 37%, and in Scarborough 45% to 40%."

"For Chow, the race is still manageable but not settled. For Bradford, the issue is no longer just catching Chow, it is holding enough of the anti-Chow vote together. For Alexander, the opportunity is that most voters have not yet defined him. The risk is that being introduced to voters in a mayoral campaign is not the same thing as being accepted by them."

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.