Federal Tracker: Liberals Open 13-Point Lead as Conservatives Slide

August 10, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Weekly Federal Tracker from Liaison Strategies shows the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, opening a 13-point lead over Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives, the Liberals' largest lead in the tracker since March.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals stand at 44%, followed by the Conservatives at 31%, the NDP at 13%, the Bloc Québécois at 6%, the Green Party at 3%, the People's Party at 2%, and Other parties at 1%.

Among all voters, the Liberals are at 39%, the Conservatives are at 27%, the NDP is at 11%, the Bloc is at 5%, the Greens and PPC are at 2% each, Other parties are at 1%, and 13% are undecided.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from July 26 to August 8, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across landline and cellular phone networks. The data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. The margin of error for the total sample is +/-2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, though this margin is higher for sub-samples. Additionally, results may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"This is the first real movement we have seen in the federal topline in a few weeks. The Liberals are up one point to 44%, the Conservatives are down three points to 31%, and the NDP is up one point to 13%. That moves the Liberal lead from 9 points last week to 13 points this week."

"A 13-point Liberal lead is not unprecedented in this tracker, but it is the largest Liberal lead since March. In recent weeks the race had been mostly in the 6-to-9-point range. This week's result puts the Liberals back into a much more comfortable position."

"Among all voters, the Liberals are unchanged at 39%, while the Conservatives are down three points to 27%. Undecided is up to 13%. So part of the Conservative drop is not simply moving directly to another party. Some of it is moving out of the decided column into the undecided column."

"It is worth noting that this week’s movement reflects the rolling nature of the tracker: a stronger Conservative week rolled out of the sample and was replaced by a stronger Liberal week. Whatever happens next week, this latest half-sample will remain in the tracker for one more week."

"The regional picture is doing a lot of work. The Liberals lead in Ontario, 48% to 34%, in Quebec, 45% to 26% over the Bloc and 18% over the Conservatives, and in British Columbia, 43% to 30% over the Conservatives. The Conservatives lead in Alberta, 48% to 33%, and in the Prairies, 43% to 32%."

"Carney's approval is steady at 57%, with disapproval down one point to 33% and 9% not sure. That puts him at plus 24, which is a strong personal position for a sitting prime minister. His approval is especially strong in Quebec at 75% and British Columbia at 62%."

"Poilievre's favourable number is unchanged at 34%, while his unfavourable number is up one point to 53%. His favourable number is tied for its lowest point in this tracker, and his unfavourable number is the highest we have seen since March. That matters because the Conservative vote is moving down at the same time his personal numbers remain weak."

"Avi Lewis is at 30% favourable and 30% unfavourable, with 21% not sure and 19% not familiar with him. His favourable number is unchanged from last week, but his unfavourable number is up one point and is now the highest it has been in the tracker."

"Lewis’s numbers are becoming more politically complicated. The NDP is up slightly nationally, but Lewis is no longer just gaining recognition; he is also picking up resistance. The party’s strength remains concentrated among younger voters and in British Columbia, rather than evenly distributed across the country."

"The Liberal advantage continues to be built on women and older voters. Among women, the Liberals lead by 23 points, while among men the race is much closer. Younger voters remain more fragmented, with the Liberals ahead but the NDP much more competitive than it is nationally."

"Overall, this is a strong Liberal week. The Liberals have not surged, but the Conservatives have slipped, and that is enough to widen the gap. For the Conservatives, the immediate problem is that they are losing ground on the ballot while Poilievre remains personally underwater. For the Liberals, the advantage is that Carney's approval remains steady and the party is again holding a double-digit lead."

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.