Perception Gap: GTA Residents Believe Crime is Rising - Even When It Isn't
December 30 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies survey of thousands of residents across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) has identified a profound disconnect between public anxiety and actual 2025 safety trends. While official police data from Toronto, Peel, and York Regions highlights historic declines in high-profile crimes like homicide and auto theft, the vast majority of residents believe these crimes are surging. The results were first published in The Toronto Star.
Conducted from October 22-23, 2025, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR), the surveys polled residents in Brampton (800), Mississauga (800), Vaughan (800), Markham (800) and Toronto (1,000). The margin of error is ±3.46 percentage points, 19 times out of 20; for Toronto it is ±3.09 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Numbers are also available for Hamilton, Kitchener, London, Ottawa and Windsor.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).
The survey found that 76% of Torontonians believe crime in Canada as a whole has increased over the past year. This sentiment is echoed across the region, with 77% of Bramptonians, 64% of Mississauga residents, and nearly 60% of those in Vaughan and Markham sharing the same outlook.
"The GTA is currently the epicenter of a national perception gap," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies.
"In Toronto, homicides have plummeted, yet 72% of residents believe they are on the rise. We see the same pattern in Peel and York; residents are feeling a level of risk that simply doesn't align with the 2025 statistical reality".
"What we have found is that citizens in every major city feel crime is going up regardless of whether crime has increased, remained stable or declined."
Auto Thefts
"Despite massive enforcement successes across the GTA, public concern remains stubbornly high. While auto thefts dropped by over 25% in Toronto, nearly 40% in Peel, and 37% in York, more than 7 in 10 Torontonians and Bramptonians still believe the problem is worsening. This suggests that high-profile carjacking reports may be outweighing the statistical reality of fewer stolen vehicles in the public mind," said Valentin.
Regional Highlights: Peel and York
Peel Region (Brampton & Mississauga): While residents in Brampton (73%) and Mississauga (60%) perceive homicides as increasing, Peel Regional Police reported only 10 occurrences through October 2025, compared to 19 for the full year of 2024.
York Region (Vaughan & Markham): York has seen some of the most dramatic improvements, with homicides down 67% and hate crimes down 25% mid-year, yet over half of residents in Vaughan and Markham still perceive these crimes to be on the rise.
Detailed Poll Report:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.