PCs lead OLP 44% to 35%, Ontarians Skeptical of Highway 401 Tunnel Expansion

January 2, 2026 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll conducted for Focus Ontario shows the governing Progressive Conservatives maintaining a 9-point lead over the Ontario Liberals among decided voters. However, the survey also finds significant public opposition to the provincial government's proposal to build a tunnel under Highway 401, with a majority of Ontarians favoring other infrastructure and social priorities.

Conducted from December 5-7, 2025, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology, the survey polled 1,000 Ontarians. The margin of error for the poll is ± 3.09 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:

If a provincial election were held today, Doug Ford’s PCs would lead the Ontario Liberals by nine points among decided and leaning voters, 44% to 35%. While the PCs hold strong leads in Eastern Ontario (54%) and Southwestern Ontario (52%), the Liberals are ahead in the 416 (45%) and the North (40%), and are currently leading in the 905 (44%).

The Toronto and Northern results are unsurprising, but the 905 figure would represent a dramatic turnaround given the PCs’ consistent lead there. That said, it should be treated cautiously unless and until subsequent surveys confirm it.

It’s also worth noting that the Ontario Liberals still don’t have a permanent leader and haven’t announced the details of a leadership race, so some Ontarians may simply be parking their vote with the party for now.

While the government leads in the horse race, their signature Highway 401 tunnel proposal is facing a uphill climb with the public. Only 28% of Ontarians support the project, while 45% are opposed. When asked to choose the top transportation priority for the GTA, only 6% of respondents chose the tunnel. Instead, 33% say the priority should be improving public transit, followed by improving local roads and intersections at 20%.

Key findings from the survey include:

• Transparency and Safety: 78% of Ontarians believe the government should publicly release previous studies on the tunnel, even if they raise serious concerns.
• Safety Concerns: While 58% of respondents were initially concerned about safety and construction risks, that number jumped to 75% (with 49% 'very concerned') after being informed of reported internal risks like roadway collapse.
• Opportunity Costs: If the tunnel project limits funding for other priorities, 46% of Ontarians would prefer the province focus on healthcare, education, or housing. Only 7% would prioritize building the tunnel over these areas.
• Trust and Impact: 36% of Ontarians have 'no trust at all' in the government to manage the project safely, on budget, and transparently. Furthermore, 47% believe the tunnel will do 'nothing' or 'a little' to actually reduce traffic congestion.
• Project Characterization: Nearly half of Ontarians (48%) describe the project as 'unrealistic, risky and wasteful,' compared to 18% who view it as a 'bold, nation-building project'.

"The data suggests that only PC voters support the project," added Valentin. "56% of PC supporters back the tunnel, 20% oppose it and 16% are neutral. Across almost every other demographic and region, opposition outweighs support. With 78% supporting the release of previous studies, transparency will likely be a key issue for the government moving forward."

"Though a lot of Ontarians believe the project would achieve little and oppose the project, many of these same Ontarians would vote for Doug Ford and the PC Party if an election were held today," concluded Valentin.

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Detailed Poll Report:

About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.