Ontario PCs Lead by 10 over Ontario Liberals

January 13, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) finds Doug Ford PCs leading Bonnie Crombie's Ontario Liberals by 10 points, with the Liberals up 3 points week over week.

Conducted from January 8-9, 2025, using interactive voice response technology, the poll surveyed 1,202 Ontario voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.82%, 19 times out of 20. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, noted the significance of the Liberals reaching 30% support, a level not seen since May 2024. "This could be an outlier, a temporary bump, or the start of a new trend," Valentin said. "Since last year, the Liberals have struggled, sometimes polling as low as 26%. Seeing them at 30% is notable."

"A lot has taken place since our Ontario survey in the first week of January: the Prime Minister's announcement that he won't lead the Federal Liberals in the next election, Donald Trump's renewed rhetoric about annexing Canada, and Doug Ford’s refusal to rule out an early election in Ontario could all be contributing factors. However, it remains to be seen whether this increase in Liberal support is sustainable."

The regional breakdown offers a mixed picture for the PCs. The Liberals lead in Northern Ontario and Toronto, while the NDP is ahead in South Central Ontario (including Hamilton and Niagara). The PCs maintain strong leads in Southwestern and Eastern Ontario but face a narrowing lead of just 7 points in the 905 region.

"In light of a potential early Ontario election this year, we’ve transitioned our Ontario polling to weekly releases," Valentin explained. "With political volatility on the rise and a possible federal election this spring, there’s a lot of uncertainty in the air."

Ontario Numbers (Change from last survey)
Ontario PC 40% (-1)
Ontario Liberal 30% (+3)
Ontario NDP 21% (-1)
Ontario Greens 4% (-1)
Other 5% (-)

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