Ontario PCs Holding Strong as Early Election Speculation Heats Up

August 29, 2024 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) finds Doug Ford PCs leading Bonnie Crombie's Ontario Liberals by 13 points and in majority government territory.

Conducted from August 19-20, 2024, using interactive voice response technology, the poll surveyed 1,245 Ontario voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.71%, 19 times out of 20. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

"As early elections speculation continues the Ford PCs are in a comfortable lead and would earn a majority government if the election were held today," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies.

"The PCs are doing well in most of Ontario, though they are in a statistical tie for first in the North, Toronto and South Central. That being said, their Toronto numbers are an improvement from where we have found them in the past few months and they are leading in the 905."

"There is relatively little good news for the NDP and Liberals here. The NDP can take solace that they are in a strong second in South Central (Hamilton and Niagara) and the Liberals are still marginally leading in Toronto."

"This month we asked Ontarians if they had a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the provincial leaders. Despite the fact the PCs are polling well, 65% of Ontarians say they have an unfavourable view of Doug Ford, while 28% approve giving Ford a net score of -37."

"New leader Bonnie Crombie has 27% favourable compared to 42% unfavourable for a net score of -15."

"Meanwhile, most Ontarians do not have a clear opinion of NDP Leader Marit Stiles or Green leader Mike Schreiner. Both have positive scores, +2 and +4 respectively, but 54% of Ontarians are not sure or don't have familiarity with Marit Stiles and that number is 58% for the Green party leader."

"Look for those numbers to change once an election is called, early or not, as more Ontarians will be following provincial politics once there is actually an election," concluded Valentin.

Ontario Numbers (Change from last survey)
Ontario PC 40% (+2)
Ontario Liberal 27% (-2)
Ontario NDP 21% (-1)
Ontario Greens 6% (no change)
Other 6% (+1)

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