Ontario Byelections: Dead Heat in Milton; Tories Lead in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex

Posted by David Valentin
— 2 min read
Ontario Byelections: Dead Heat in Milton; Tories Lead in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex

April 3, 2024 (Toronto, ON) – New Liaison polls commissioned by the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) show a tight race in Milton, while the Tories lead in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex.

The by elections are expected to be called together and the deadline to call the by Lambton-Kent-Middlesex election is today. 

Conducted from March 27-28, 2024, using interactive voice response technology, the Lambton-Kent-Middlesex poll surveyed 403 voters and has a margin of error of =/- 4.88, 19 times out of 20; while the Milton poll surveyed 451 voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.62, 19 times out of 20. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

"Milton was a tight race in the 2022 election with the Ford Tories winning by only 4%. Among all voters the PCs hold a razor thin 1% lead, while among those decided and leaning the Liberals and Tories are tied at 39% a piece. This is the kind of riding Bonnie Crombie needs to win if she's going to form a government. Conversely, if Doug Ford and the PCs can hold onto seats like Milton, it bodes well for re-election," said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies.

"Lambton-Kent-Middlesex meanwhile is trending Tory. This is not a surprise in a long-time PC stronghold, though the PC vote is currently down 20 points. Some of that was probably unavoidable, long-time MPP Monte McNaughton is no longer on the ballot and byelections are sometimes a way for voters to send a message to the governing party. Low turnout may see the PC vote trend higher if their committed supporters make it out to the polls."

"However, despite being down 20 points, the PC numbers in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex are still good enough for a 13 point lead."

"We'll learn a lot from these by elections as the parties test-run their campaign messages. These will be the first contests held with Bonnie Crombie as the new leader. Both ridings will have important pieces of information as we approach the 2026 Ontario election," concluded Valentin.


Milton Decided & Leaning:

39% - Zee Hamid (PC)
39% - Galen Naidoo Harris (Ontario Liberal)
10% - Katherine Cirlincione* (Ontario NDP)
5% - Kyle Hutton (Ontario Greens)

*2022 Candidate

Lambton-Kent-Middlesex Decided & Leaning:

39%- Steve Pinsonneault (PC)
26% - Cathy Burghardt-Jesson (Ontario Liberal)
14% - Kathryn Shailer (Ontario NDP)
12% - Andraena Tilgner (Ontario Greens)

Read the PDF Report: