National Tracker: Liberals, Tories Up 1; 2 Point Race Continues
March 23, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, shows a stable race with the Liberals and Conservatives both up 1 point to 39% and 37% respectively.
The rolling survey, conducted from March 20 to March 22, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
"Day one of the election campaign sees both the Liberals and Conservatives gaining a point, while the NDP drops back to 9%," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "Today's numbers reflect the past three days of polling, with fresh data from today set to appear in tomorrow's update."
"Regionally, the Liberals hold a strong lead in Atlantic Canada, remain ahead in Quebec and Ontario (by 7 points and 4 points, respectively), and are in a close contest with the Conservatives in British Columbia."
"Though the national numbers suggest a tight race, the regional breakdown paints a different picture—one where a Liberal government remains the most likely outcome."
"But it's only day one of the campaign, and with 35 days to go, there's plenty of room for surprises."
"If the numbers hold, the Liberals are on track to win—so you can bet the Conservatives, NDP, Greens, PPC, and Bloc Québécois will do everything they can to change that. The debates will be pivotal moments, and April 2nd—the day the Trump tariffs take effect—could be a game-changer," concluded Valentin.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.