National Tracker: Liberals 46%, Conservatives 39%
April 16, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 46% (+2) to the Conservatives 39% (no change).
The rolling survey, conducted from April 13 to April 15, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:
The Liberals have returned to their highest point in the tracking at 46%, while the Conservatives remain steady at 39%. Needless to say, these are very strong numbers for the Liberals heading into the debate, with a 7-point national lead.
For the NDP, however, it’s a different story - these are their weakest numbers of the campaign so far. They’ve dropped two points, falling to just 5% nationally, now tied with the Bloc Québécois.
The Liberals continue to hold strong regional leads in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia, reaching 51% support in both Ontario and B.C.
The Bloc Québécois remains steady in the low twenties at 23%, while the Conservatives maintain their lead across the Prairies and Alberta.
We took a look at leader favourability ratings - and unsurprisingly, given current party support levels, Mr. Carney comes out on top with a net +27 rating. He’s followed by Mr. Poilievre at -13 and Mr. Singh at -33.
Only 5% of respondents identified as undecided in this survey. Among them, 44% have a favourable view of Mr. Carney, compared to 26% for Mr. Poilievre and 24% for Mr. Singh.
Mr. Carney is viewed favourably by 89% of Liberal supporters, while 73% of Conservatives have a positive impression of Mr. Poilievre.
Lastly, we examined how firmly voters are committed to their chosen parties. Among Liberals, 81% say they are strong supporters and unlikely to change their minds—nearly identical to the 79% of Conservatives who say the same. These are comparable levels of voter loyalty.
For the NDP, however—even at just 5% support—49% of their voters say they could still change their minds and back another party. Meanwhile, 56% of Bloc supporters consider themselves firmly committed, while 35% say they might reconsider.
Today and tomorrow bring the leaders' debates - and there are still plenty of voters up for grabs: the 5% who remain undecided, the 20% of Liberal and Conservative supporters who say they could still switch, the 49% of soft NDP voters, and 35% of Bloc Québécois supporters who are open to changing their minds.
We will be watching the tracking survey carefully in the days following the debate to see if there is movement.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.