National Tracker: Liberals 46%, Conservatives 38% (Again)
April 5, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 46% (no change) to the Conservatives 38% (no change).
The rolling survey, conducted from April 2 to April 4, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
"Today’s results closely mirror yesterday’s," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "And that’s bad news for the Bloc Québécois, who remain under 20% in Quebec. They were at 17% yesterday and inch up only slightly to 18% today. One off-day isn’t necessarily cause for concern, but a sustained downward trend like this is a real warning sign."
"The Liberals are sticking to their greatest hits—holding the lead in Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and British Columbia. Meanwhile, the NDP continues to stall at 6%, and the Bloc is hanging on at 4%."
"For those waiting for a shake-up in the race—keep waiting. The best remaining shot for a shift may be the French and English debates, where opposition leaders will need to land a blow on Mr. Carney. Otherwise, U.S. President Donald Trump continues to dominate the news cycle, and that’s unlikely to change before Election Day."
"There have been some subtle shifts in the campaign narrative. 'Canada First – for a change' has quietly morphed into 'Bring it Home – for a change.' Mr. Poilievre’s podium yesterday featured a red maple leaf on a blue background. Among it's other benefits, since the sign has no text, it can be reused."
"Meanwhile, Mr. Blanchet has pledged to introduce a bill giving Quebec negotiators a seat at the table in any future renegotiation of a trade deal with the U.S. Personally, I’m unsure of the appeal - this move only highlights that the Bloc cannot form government and it can't deliver on such a promise alone - it would require a majority in the House. I lived in Montreal for five years, but I won’t pretend to understand Quebec politics better than the Bloc’s own strategists - maybe there’s a strategic nuance I’m missing that has gotten lost in translation."
"I mentioned yesterday that we might see some impact from Radio Canada's Cinq chefs, une élection - perhaps some fallout for Mr. Carney over perceptions of his weaker command of French. But if there was any movement in response, it's not showing up in the numbers—at least not yet," concluded Valentin.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.