National Tracker: Liberals 45%, Conservatives 37%
April 3, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 45% (+1) with the Conservatives falling to 37% (-2).
The rolling survey, conducted from March 31 to April 2, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
"It was a strong night for the Liberals and a tough one for the Conservatives," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "Until now, the Liberals had topped out at 44%, but they've inched up to 45%. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have slipped two points nationwide, widening the Liberal lead to eight points overall."
"Regionally, the outlook worsens for the Conservatives. Yesterday, they were effectively tied with the Liberals in British Columbia—today, the Liberals have opened up an 11-point lead. The next few days will be key in determining whether this is a temporary fluctuation or the start of a larger shift."
"In Ontario, the Liberals now hold an 11-point lead. In Quebec, they are ahead by 18 points, with the Conservatives at 25%, followed by the Bloc Québécois in third at 22%. Meanwhile, in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are dominating with 60% support. If the election were held today, these numbers would translate into a strong Liberal majority."
"The NDP remains stuck at 6% for the third consecutive day, struggling to gain momentum."
"We're now over a quarter of the way to Election Day—which means there's still about 75% of the campaign left. But time is running out for the opposition. With the race increasingly shaping up as a Liberal-Conservative showdown, smaller parties risk being completely squeezed out," concluded Valentin.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.