National Tracker: Liberals 44%, Conservatives 41%
April 27, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 44% (no change) to the Conservatives 41% (+1).
The rolling survey, conducted from April 24 to April 26, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:
Welcome to the end of the election campaign. Tomorrow is election day and this is our second last update. Barring any hiccups we will have one final update later that will include numbers from today.
Today’s tracking shows the Liberals holding steady at 44% nationally, while the Conservatives climb slightly to 41%, narrowing the gap to just three points. The NDP remains stuck at 6%, with the Bloc Québécois holding at 6% nationally (and 25% in Quebec). The Greens, PPC, and other parties remain at 1% each.
Regionally, the Liberals continue to dominate in the key battlegrounds they need for a majority. They lead Atlantic Canada by a wide margin at 53%, are ahead in Quebec at 42%, and maintain a strong 49% in Ontario compared to 41% for the Conservatives. In British Columbia, the Conservatives have pulled ahead at 46% to the Liberals’ 44%, making B.C. a true battleground in the final stretch. As usual, the Conservatives continue to dominate in Alberta (63%) and the Prairies (53%).
The NDP remains under pressure, posting low single-digit numbers nationally and only reaching 8% support in British Columbia, their strongest region.
Final numbers and thoughts will come later tonight but today, as for most of the campaign, we would expect a Liberal majority government with these numbers.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.