National Tracker: Liberals 44%, Conservatives 41%
April 17, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 44% (-2) to the Conservatives 41% (+2).
The rolling survey, conducted from April 14 to April 16, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:
Today’s numbers paint a slightly different picture from the past few days, when we mostly saw the Liberal lead growing. The Conservatives have reached a new high in our tracking at 41%, while the Liberals continue to lead at 44%.
It’s important to note that most of the new tracking data doesn't yet reflect the impact of the French-language debate - though a portion, including some of the Quebec sample, does. That said, I wouldn’t read too much into the shift just yet, especially with the English-language debate happening tonight - anything could happen.
We’ll have another update tomorrow, which will include some English post-debate sample, mostly from Western Canada due to CRTC calling restrictions and the debate’s 7 PM ET start time. It will of course contain a full day of Quebec post-debate sample.
My take on yesterday’s debate? It was fine!
Regionally, despite some movement, today’s numbers still point to a Liberal majority government. The Liberals are down 4 points in B.C., with most of that support shifting to the NDP, who are up 3. In Quebec, the Liberals dip 2 points to 42%, while both the Bloc and the Conservatives gain 1. In Ontario, the Liberals are down 2 - from 51% to 49%.
All of this is within the margin of error, but still - losing two points in Ontario and holding at 49% is a very strong position to be in. The Liberals still lead in Atlantic Canada, Québec, Ontario and British Columbia.
Aside from that the Bloc and NDP are both back up to 6% while the Greens are down to 1%. Until tomorrow!
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.