National Tracker: Liberals 44%, Conservatives 39% (Again)

April 18, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 44% (no change) to the Conservatives 39% (no change).

The rolling survey, conducted from April 16 to April 18, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:

It’s déjà vu, with the Liberals holding at 44% and the Conservatives at 39% for the second day in a row.

One notable shift: the PPC has dropped to 1%, now sitting alongside the Green Party and independent candidates at the bottom of the pack.

Regionally, the Bloc Québécois notch their second consecutive day in second place—just one point ahead of the Conservatives, but still an improvement over their earlier numbers.

The Liberals continue to lead in Atlantic Canada (+15), Quebec (+12), Ontario (+11), and British Columbia (+6), which would translate into a majority government if the election were held today.

Advance polls are now open, and hundreds of thousands of Canadians have already cast their ballots. We’ll be keeping a close eye on the tracking over the weekend for any signs of movement following the debates.

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.

As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.

About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.