National Tracker: Liberals 44%, Conservatives 39%
April 25, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 44% (+1) to the Conservatives 39% (+1).
The rolling survey, conducted from April 22 to April 24, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:
Today’s daily tracking shows the Liberals maintaining their national lead at 44%, with the Conservatives holding steady at 39%. The NDP are at 8% nationally, while the Bloc Québécois sits at 6% overall and 25% in Quebec.
Support for the Liberals continues to be broad and stable across the country. They lead by 11 points in Atlantic Canada, by 15 points in Quebec (with the Bloc and Conservatives tied at 24% for second place), by 8 points in Ontario, and by 4 points in British Columbia.
The election is coming into the final stretch, and with these regionals, the Liberals are still on track for a majority government if current trends hold.
There’s still a little room for movement before Election Day — but not much. At this point, the Conservatives would need a major polling miss to pull off a win on Monday. Right now, the race looks to be between a Liberal majority and a Liberal minority.
Recent Conservative travel plans seem to confirm this reality, with events scheduled in Saskatoon, Calgary, and Peterborough — all ridings that should be safe for them if they were truly on track for a victory Monday night.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.