National Tracker: Liberals 44%, Conservatives 39%
April 17, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 44% (no change) to the Conservatives 39% (-2).
The rolling survey, conducted from April 15 to April 17, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:
The Conservatives gave back yesterday’s gains in today’s update - a pattern we’ve seen often with the recent back-and-forth movement. The Liberals remain steady at 44%, making this a 5-point race.
While some of yesterday’s sample captured reaction to the English-language debate, it was limited and mostly from Western Canada.
Today’s numbers, however, include a full day of post-French debate responses, and the early signs suggest the Bloc Québécois was the main beneficiary. After spending most of our tracking in third place, the Bloc has now edged into a nominal second. It’s a small but notable shift, and one we’ll be watching closely to see if it sticks.
The Liberals continue to lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia - numbers that, if the election were held today, would most likely translate into a Liberal majority government.
The NDP have ticked up a point to 7%, which is an improvement, though still far from strong. They’re polling at 9% in both the Prairies and British Columbia.
Tomorrow may bring some movement as the impact of the English leaders' debate begins to show. In the meantime, parties will be turning their attention to advance polls, which run through Monday, and preparing for platform launches expected this weekend.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.