National Tracker: Liberals 44%, Conservatives 39%

April 15, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 44% (no change) to the Conservatives 39% (+1).

The rolling survey, conducted from April 12 to April 14, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:

The Liberals are holding steady, while the Conservatives have picked up a point in today’s tracking. Overall, the race has remained remarkably stable as we head into tomorrow’s French-language debate.

Now is a good time for a quick programming note:
The French-language debate takes place tomorrow (April 16), but because most of the polling sample will be completed before it airs, any impact from the debate won’t be reflected in tomorrow’s numbers.

Similarly, the English-language debate happens Thursday, and any potential movement from that will first appear in Friday’s sample, which will be released on Saturday.

In the meantime, if the election were held today, the Liberals would likely form a majority government, as they continue to lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia.

The NDP has slipped back to 6% in today’s tracking, while the Bloc sits at 22% in Quebec - on the lower end of their range this week.

Will the debates move the numbers? Your guess is as good as mine. For the opposition parties, this is their best shot at shifting the dynamics of the race.

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.

As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.

About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.