National Tracker: Liberals 44%, Conservatives 39%

April 2, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 44% (no change) with the Conservatives rising a point to 39% (+1).

The rolling survey, conducted from March 30 to April 1, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.

"The tracker remains stable for now, with some movement, but all within the margin of error," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "Despite a few missteps in recent days, there’s no indication—at least yet—that Mr. Carney is facing any fallout in the tracking."

"Recent media coverage has focused heavily on Paul Chiang, and in Quebec, there was notable reaction to the U.S. stance on Bill 96. However, Quebec numbers remain relatively steady, with the Liberals up two points to 43%, the Conservatives at 27%, and the Bloc Québécois holding at 21%."

"Regionally, outside of Quebec, British Columbia has seen some tightening, but elsewhere, the landscape remains largely unchanged. The Liberals continue to lead in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, while the Conservatives hold strong in the Prairies and Alberta. If the election were held today (which, of course, it isn't!), the numbers suggest a Liberal majority government."

"Today's tariff announcement is expected to dominate the conversation. It’s difficult to see a scenario where this benefits the opposition, but with President Trump, anything is possible," concluded Valentin.

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.

As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.

About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.