National Tracker: Liberals 43%, Conservatives 38%
April 24, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 43% (+1) to the Conservatives 38% (-1).
The rolling survey, conducted from April 21 to April 23, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:
Yesterday’s narrowing of the race saw a slight reversal today, with the Liberals ticking up one point and the Conservatives slipping slightly. The NDP hold steady at 8%, while the Bloc Québécois sits at 25% in Quebec, continuing to trail in the province.
The election is almost done! There are just three days left of the daily tracker. As of now, the Liberals are likely to win the election though whether it would be a majority or not is still up in the air.
The Liberals continue to post the regional leads they need: up by 11 points in Atlantic Canada, 15 points ahead of the Bloc Québécois in Quebec (with the Conservatives at 23%), holding an 8-point lead in Ontario (unchanged from yesterday), and leading by 4 points in British Columbia.
With these regionals we would expect the Liberals to win a majority government.
There’s still time for the race to tighten further, and Ontario remains the key battleground to watch. If the Conservatives hope to prevent a Liberal majority, they’ll need to make gains there.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.