National Tracker: Liberals 43%, Conservatives 38%
April 20, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 43% (-1) to the Conservatives 38% (-1).
The rolling survey, conducted from April 17 to April 19, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:
As the holiday weekend rolls on, we’re seeing some light movement in the tracking. The NDP have edged back up to 8%, and the PPC have returned to 2%. As a result, both the Liberals and Conservatives have dipped slightly - now at 43% and 38%, respectively.
Regionally, the Bloc Québécois remain in second place for the third day in a row. In Quebec, the Liberals lead with 40%, followed by the Bloc at 27% and the Conservatives close behind at 25%.
The Liberals continue to hold strong leads in Atlantic Canada (+15), Ontario (+12), and British Columbia (+6). While the Conservatives maintain their advantage in Alberta and the Prairies, the overall numbers still point to a likely Liberal majority government.
Elections Canada reported record-breaking turnout for Friday’s advance polls, so we’ll be watching closely to see how turnout shapes up over the rest of the weekend. More importantly, once the advance polls wrap up, Elections Canada is expected to release turnout data by riding.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.