National Tracker: Liberals 43%, Conservatives 38%
March 31, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 43% (+1) with the Conservatives at 38% (No Change).
The rolling survey, conducted from March 28 to March 30, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
“The Liberals have inched up, turning a 4-point lead into a 5-point lead,” said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. “While that shift isn’t statistically significant given the survey’s margin of error, there are a couple of interesting takeaways in today’s tracking.”
“The first is that the NDP is once again holding at 7%. Last night wasn’t a strong one for them, so I was surprised to see them maintain that number—until I realized Friday was a particularly good day in their tracking. Today’s release covers Friday through Sunday, meaning tomorrow’s update will drop Friday’s data and add Monday’s. The NDP will need another solid night just to hold steady.”
“Regionally, things remain largely unchanged. The Liberals continue to lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and Ontario. In British Columbia, they remain in a statistical tie with the Conservatives.”
"Yesterday, we hinted at a subregional survey release—today, we can reveal that the focus is Saskatoon, and the results are quite intriguing. I’ll be diving into the details in a separate post, which you can find here (or in your inbox if you're subscribed to our emails)."
"We’re now in week two of the campaign, and tomorrow marks President Trump’s so-called ‘Liberation Day.’ This will create a challenging media landscape for opposition parties, as Mr. Carney, in his role as Prime Minister, will have the platform to announce retaliatory tariffs and other measures. Expect at least 2-3 days this week to be dominated by tariff coverage," concluded Valentin.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.