National Tracker: Liberals 43%, Conservatives 37%
April 21, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 43% (no change) to the Conservatives 37% (-1).
The rolling survey, conducted from April 18 to April 20, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:
There hasn’t been a major shift since the debate, but the movement we’ve seen so far has largely favoured the NDP, who are up another point today, reaching 9%.
The Liberals remain steady at 43%, while the Conservatives have slipped to 37% - the lower end of their recent range.
Regionally, most numbers remain consistent with recent trends, except in British Columbia, where the Liberal lead has been gradually narrowing. Today, the Liberals hold a 2-point edge over the Conservatives in B.C., while the NDP sits at 13% - their highest regional score.
Perhaps this marks the start of a valiant save the furniture effort, with the NDP aiming to hold onto some - or all - of its incumbents in B.C. But with support at just 13%, it would likely take either a significant bump in numbers or a very strong incumbency advantage to make that happen.
We’re now just one week out from Election Day, and with the Liberals consistently polling above 40%, the most likely outcome - if the numbers hold - is a Liberal majority government.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.