National Tracker: Liberals 42%, Conservatives 38%

March 30, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 42% (-2) with the Conservatives at 38% (+2).

The rolling survey, conducted from March 27 to March 29, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.

"The eight-point gap has now tightened to four," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "That said, things remain relatively stable. The race could narrow further tomorrow, or the Liberal lead could expand back to five or six points. For the past seven days, the Liberals have consistently polled above 40%, while the Conservatives have fluctuated between 36% and 38%."

"Two other key takeaways: the NDP has dipped one point, returning to 7%, and the undecided rate has dropped to 5%."

"Regionally, the Liberals maintain a narrow 2-point lead in British Columbia, a solid 7-point advantage in Ontario, a 13-point edge over the Bloc Québécois in Quebec, and a commanding 17-point lead over the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada. "If the election were held today, the Liberals would form a government -most likely a majority."

"As we enter the second week of the campaign, the Conservatives face the challenge of turning things around. But even if they manage to tie the Liberals in popular support—say, 38%-38%—they would still likely lose. To form a government, they need to win the popular vote by at least 4-5%, depending on regional distributions."

"The Conservatives' vote remains highly inefficient, with massive margins in rural and western ridings but challenges in key battlegrounds. Their fate is also tied to the NDP—if the NDP vote continues to collapse and shift toward the Liberals, it becomes increasingly difficult to map out a Conservative path to victory in the popular vote."

"I've also seen comments about Pierre Poilievre drawing large crowds as supposed evidence that the polls are wrong. But this perspective misses the bigger picture. The Conservatives are actually polling at a strong 38%—under normal circumstances, that would be enough for a majority government. The issue isn't a lack of Conservative support; it's that the Liberals are performing exceptionally well, as former Bloc Québécois and NDP voters consolidate behind them."

"An interesting question now is: if these trends persist, where might unexpected surprises emerge? Tomorrow, we'll take a closer look at a specific subregion to explore how strong Liberal support could (or could not!) impact the seat count," concluded Valentin.

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.

As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.

About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.