Mississauga Race Tightens In Final Days
May 28, 2024 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) finds Carolyn Parrish narrowly holding onto a lead in the race for Mississauga mayor.
Conducted from May 24-25, 2024, using interactive voice response technology, the poll surveyed 933 Mississauga residents. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.22%, 19 times out of 20. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).
"There's a lot to say about this survey," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "Perhaps the most striking numbers come from undecided voters. The undecided rate has dropped to 16% among all voters - but it has jumped to 37% among seniors."
"The undecided rate falling closer to election day is to be expected. To see it jump in seniors at the same time is surprising. Among seniors Carolyn Parrish has lost 16 points (from 36% to 20%) and one would assume at least part of this can be attributed to recent statements Parrish has made during the election and, potentially, her decision to not attend future election debates. Her competitors, of course, seized on her remarks and played a role in their amplification."
"So as we reach the final days of the campaign there is a large pool of reliable voters that still hasn't made up their minds. Among decided voters Parrish holds a 5 point lead over Dipika Damerla (29% to 25%) and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.22%, so that's important to keep in mind. This really could be anyone's race."
"If Parrish is able to win back seniors, she has a very good chance of being mayor but the opportunity is there for the Damerla and Tedjo campaigns to seize the momentum and votes."
"On that front, Parrish is down 8 points, Damerla is up 4 points and Alvin Tedjo is in third and up 2 points. Steven Dasko is up to 12%, while Brian Crombie is up 2 points to 9%."
"A big question mark continues to be turnout and which campaigns have the team and program to deliver voters to the polls. On balance, a candidate with 200 volunteers polling at 15% is going to outperform a candidate with 10 volunteers and also at 15%. The lower the turnout and the more efficient the campaign organization, the greater the possibility for a campaign to outperform their poll numbers. Conversely, campaigns can underperform too."
"The Mississauga mayoral by election has had plenty of twists and turns. It comes down now, as always, to who shows up to vote and we will be watching the results closely on Election Day," concluded Valentin.
Among All Voters
25% - Carolyn Parrish (-3)
20% - Dipika Damerla (+5)
16% - Alvin Tedjo (+3)
10% - Stephen Dasko (+2)
8% - Brian Crombie (+3)
6% - Someone Else
16% Undecided (-9)
Decided Voters Only
29% - Carolyn Parrish (-8)
24% - Dipika Damerla (+4)
19% - Alvin Tedjo (+2)
12% - Stephen Dasko (+1)
9% - Brian Crombie (+2)
7% - Someone Else
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Read the full report: