Liberals, Tories Tied at 38%
December 22 (Toronto, ON) – A new national Liaison Strategies poll conducted over the weekend for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada shows the Carney Liberals continuing to slide and now tied with the Conservatives at 38%. The Federal NDP stays steady at 12% nationally, and maintains 19% in British Columbia.
Conducted from December 19-21, 2025, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR), the survey polled 1,000 Canadians. The margin of error is ±3.09 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies said:
As the year closes, the Liberals and Conservatives remain locked in a dead heat nationally—though the regional picture gives the Liberals a slight advantage.
Since our last survey, Liberal support is down three points, while the Conservatives are up two. The NDP is unchanged at 12% nationally, but continues to run stronger in British Columbia, where it sits at 19%.
Regionally, the Liberals hold leads in Atlantic Canada (+7), Quebec (+4 over the Bloc Québécois), Ontario (+5), and British Columbia (+4). Conservative strength is concentrated in the Prairies, with dominant margins in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (+26) and Alberta (+40).
The good news for the Liberals is that while Prime Minister Mark Carney's approval continues to dip, he's still firmly in positive territory.
Our tracking shows Carney’s numbers moving in the wrong direction: negatives continue to rise, and positives continue to slip. Even so, he still posts a strong +18 net approval rating.
What’s striking is how disconnected the Prime Minister’s personal approval is from current vote intention. My read is that this gap likely won’t last. Carney hasn’t been in office for a full year, and Canadians may still be extending some benefit of the doubt.
After the year we’ve just had in Canadian politics, it’s hard to rule anything out for 2026: another floor crossing, an election, or something no one sees coming.
Detailed Poll Report:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization whose mission is to promote and integrate economic, social and cultural interests of Ethnic communities into the mainstream of Canadian society. NEPMCC represents Canada’s Ethnic Press to the provincial and federal governments and is the major industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio and online outlets.