Ford's Lead Down to 6 Points As Campaign Commences

January 27, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll conducted by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) reveals a tightening race between the Ford Progressive Conservatives and the Ontario Liberals, with the PC lead shrinking to just 6 points.

The survey, conducted January 22-23, 2025, using interactive voice response technology, polled 1,307 Ontario voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.71%, 19 times out of 20. Liaison Strategies is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

"The trendline is more telling than any single poll, and it’s clear: the Ontario Liberals are gaining momentum. Week by week, the race is tightening." said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies.

"The big question is what's driving the shift? It's likely a number of factors but the early election call is certainly one of them as awareness of the early election has been rising with more and more media reports and developments by the day."

"This poll, fielded last Wednesday and Thursday, would not have picked up on any shifts in voter intentions following the Premier's on-camera statement the election would begin this week."

"It's worth acknowledging that blowback over an early election call may not last. It is unlikely to be the defining issue of the campaign."

The Liberals are leading in Northern Ontario (38% to 28% over the NDP with the PCs in 3rd) and Toronto (44% to 32%). The Ontario NDP are tied with the PCs in South Central (Hamilton and Niagara), 36% to 35%. PCs hold leads in all other regions though their lead has gone down 3 points in the 905, from a 9 point lead to a 6 point lead mirroring the overall Ontario survey.

"Meanwhile, the undecided rate has begun to tick down dropping from 26% to 24%. A large number of voters are still up for grabs."

There has been some question about comparing the results of telephone surveys to those conducted online. It's important to note that online panel surveys don't have margins of error, and there has been discussion as to whether panels have been 'lagging' telephone samples. Telephone surveys with a margin of error, such as this one, have proven to be accurate for elections across a number of jurisdictions - including Ontario. We will wait to see if there is a polling convergence once panels have more time to field.

"While these numbers are encouraging for the Ontario Liberals, campaigns matter. The gap could begin growing if there are candidate controversies or other negative stories surrounding the Liberal campaign. Conversely, the same could take place for the PCs who are beginning the campaign on very different footing than all of 2024," concluded Valentin.

Ontario Numbers (Change from last survey)
Ontario PC 39% (-2)
Ontario Liberal 33% (+1)
Ontario NDP 18% (-1)
Ontario Greens 5% (No change)
Other 5% (+1)

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