Federal Tracker: Liberals Widen Lead to 8, 42% to 34%
January 26 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies national survey finds the Liberals continuing to pull away from the Conservatives, widening their lead to eight points. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals lead with 42% to the Conservatives' 34%, with the NDP at 10% and the Bloc Québécois at 8%. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mark Carney's approval rating has climbed again, now reaching 62%, and 57% have an unfavourable view of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from January 12 to January 24, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. Each week, the rolling survey refreshes the sample by adding 500 participants and removing 500. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:
"If you had told me a year ago that the Canadian Prime Minister would go to Davos, give a speech to the World Economic Forum, and return a sensation I would have thought you were nuts."
"Liberal momentum is showing no signs of slowing down as they have picked up another two points this week, while the Conservatives have dipped by one. This eight-point national lead is the widest we have seen in recent weeks."
"Ontario remains the central pillar of the Liberal lead, sitting at 48% to the Conservatives' 35%, a 13-point gap. In Quebec, the race is a dead heat between the Bloc Québécois (37%) and the Liberals (35%). Interestingly, we are seeing the Liberals hold a double-digit lead in BC (44% to 33%), which suggests their message is resonating across both coasts."
"This report is mostly good news for the Liberals but pause for a second on the biggest flashing light in the regionals: the Bloc is narrowly ahead in Quebec, still within the margin of error, but ahead nonetheless. And if you’re in English Canada you’d be forgiven for thinking Mark Carney’s Davos remarks were the defining speech of his week. In Quebec City, though, he delivered a national unity address that fared poorly with Quebec media and the story only grew after he canceled a planned news conference on Friday."
"Prime Minister Mark Carney's approval has now broken the 60% mark, landing at 62% this week, and as you can see in the chart above, he has increased his approval everywhere except Alberta throughout the month. He was already on a positive trajectory at the beginning of the year and the Davos speech has supercharged it (keep in mind only half this sample is post-Davos). His net approval has jumped from +19 to +29 over the course of January."
"News is less cheery for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. His net favourability has been sliding, from -16 in September to -20 today, with 57% of Canadians now saying they view him unfavourably."
"This weekend, Conservatives will gather in Calgary to decide if he will stay or go. Plenty of observers expect Poilievre to survive the leadership review. Maybe he will. But leadership conventions have a way of humbling the conventional wisdom."
"I remember when Tom Mulcair faced his NDP review, the assumption was that he’d clear it, probably comfortably, certainly above 50%. He didn’t."
"More recently, Bonnie Crombie of the Ontario Liberals was expected to pass her review handily. Her team was talking about a number north of 70%. That didn’t happen either and she announced shortly afterward that she’d be resigning."
"My instinct here is simple: anything is possible, and very little would surprise me. There’s real lingering frustration inside the party after the last election, particularly among would-be candidates who felt mistreated in the nomination process. The threat from that cohort seems credible enough that the party has already moved to reform nominations ahead of the convention. Maybe that’s enough to smooth things over. Or maybe it’s too late and some of the discontented aren’t looking for apologies so much as leverage, or they’ve concluded they can’t win under the new rules anyway."
"Mechanically, the stakes are clear, delegates were chosen months ago: 12 per riding, including the past candidate and the EDA president. It’s a secret ballot. All I can say is: good luck."
Detailed Poll Report:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.