Federal Tracker: Liberals Lead Conservatives By 12; Carney Approval Rebounds

May 26, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Weekly Federal Tracker from Liaison Strategies shows the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, holding a 12-point lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister's approval has rebounded to 59%.

If a federal election were held today among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals would receive 43% of the vote, followed by the Conservatives at 31%, the NDP at 11%, the Bloc Québécois at 6%, and the PPC and Other parties at 3% each. The Green Party sits at 2%.

Among all voters, the Liberals stand at 38%, followed by the Conservatives at 27%, the NDP at 10%, the Bloc at 5%, Other parties at 3%, the PPC at 2%, and the Greens at 1%. Fourteen per cent of voters remain undecided.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from May 11 to May 23, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing across landline and cellular phone networks. The sample includes a dedicated oversample of Quebec voters. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.51 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

“The Liberals have widened their lead back to double digits, while the Conservatives have slipped to 31% among decided and leaning voters. That puts the national race back where it has been for much of the spring: a comfortable Liberal lead, with the Conservatives still searching for a path through Ontario.”

“Ontario remains the central problem for the Conservatives. The Liberals are at 51% in Ontario, compared to 31% for the Conservatives. When the largest province is producing a 20-point Liberal lead, it becomes very difficult for Conservative strength in Alberta to offset the map.”

“The Liberals also lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and British Columbia. The Conservatives lead in Alberta and are tied with the Liberals in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. That gives the Conservatives some regional strength, but not enough to change the national picture.”

“Carney’s approval has bounced back to 59% after falling to 56% last week. That is still below the highs we saw earlier in the year, but it is a strong number for a sitting Prime Minister. His disapproval sits at 35%.”

“Poilievre remains underwater, with 38% favourable and 52% unfavourable. That number has been stubborn. The Conservatives can hold their base, but growing beyond it is hard when the leader’s negatives are this high.”

“Avi Lewis continues to become better known, but he remains undefined for a large share of voters. Twenty-five per cent have a favourable view of him, 21% have an unfavourable view, 21% are not sure, and 33% say they are not familiar with him. The NDP is at 11%, which is an improvement from earlier in the spring, but still leaves the party well behind the Liberals and Conservatives.”

-30-

Detailed Poll Report:

About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.