Federal Tracker: Liberals Lead by 9 as Three By-Elections Are Called

July 27, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Weekly Federal Tracker from Liaison Strategies shows the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, holding a 9-point lead over Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives as three federal by-elections get underway.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals stand at 44%, followed by the Conservatives at 35%, the NDP at 11%, the Bloc Québécois at 5%, the Green Party at 2%, the People's Party at 1%, and Other parties at 1%.

Among all voters, the Liberals are at 38%, the Conservatives are at 31%, the NDP is at 9%, the Bloc is at 5%, the Greens, PPC, and Other parties are at 1% each, and 14% are undecided.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from July 12 to July 25, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across landline and cellular phone networks. The data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"The Liberal lead has moved from 8 points last week to 9 points this week. The Liberals are up one point, the Conservatives are unchanged, and the NDP is down one. It is not a dramatic shift, but it is another week where the Liberals are in the mid-40s and the Conservatives are stuck in the mid-30s."

"This also lands at an important moment. On Sunday, after our field period was complete, three federal by-elections were called for August 31 in Beaches-East York, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, and North Vancouver-Capilano. These numbers are not a reaction to those writs, but they do give us the national backdrop heading into those contests."

"That backdrop is reasonably favourable for the Liberals. In Ontario, the Liberals lead 49% to 38% among decided and leaning voters. In Quebec, the Liberals are at 45%, the Bloc is at 23%, and the Conservatives are at 22%. In British Columbia, the Liberals are at 44%, the Conservatives are at 33%, and the NDP is at 21%. Those are provincial numbers, not riding forecasts, but all three by-elections are happening in provinces where the Liberal brand is in a competitive or leading position."

"Carney's approval is 56%, with 35% disapproving and 9% not sure. Approval is down one point from last week, while disapproval is unchanged. This is not his lowest number in the tracker, he has been at 55 before, but it is on the lower side of his recent range. Even so, he remains strongly above water at plus 21."

"Poilievre's favourable number is unchanged at 36%, but his unfavourable number is up one point to 51%. Eight per cent are not sure and 5% are not familiar with him. He has had better ratings than this, including a 39% favourable rating earlier this year and a 47% unfavourable rating in June, so this is not his best footing. He remains familiar to voters, but still clearly net negative."

"Avi Lewis is at 29% favourable, 27% unfavourable, 24% not sure, and 19% not familiar with him. His favourable number is up one point, his unfavourable number is down one, and his unfamiliarity is down one. That gives him his highest favourable rating in this tracker so far, but he is still working through a large pool of voters who either do not know him or do not have an opinion."

"Lewis continues to be relevant to the national picture because the NDP vote is uneven. Nationally, the NDP is at 11% among decided and leaning voters, but they are at 22% among voters aged 18 to 34 and 21% in British Columbia. This shows where the NDP is still finding pockets of strength."

"The gender and age splits are also worth watching. Women favour the Liberals 48% to 30%, while men are tied at 41% for the Liberals and Conservatives. Among voters aged 18 to 34, the Liberals are at 37%, the Conservatives are at 28%, and the NDP is at 22%. Among voters 65 and older, the Liberals lead 56% to 32%."

"Overall, this is a stable Liberal lead with one more point of room than last week. The Conservatives remain close enough to keep the race competitive, but they have not found movement on vote intention and Poilievre is still carrying a difficult personal brand. With three by-elections now on the calendar, the national environment is one the Liberals would much rather have than the Conservatives."

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.