Federal Tracker: Liberals Lead by 9: 43% to 34%
February 16, 2026 (Toronto, ON) – A new national survey by Liaison Strategies reveals that if a federal election were held today, the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, would hold a substantial 9 point lead over the Conservative Party. The Weekly Federal Tracker shows high approval ratings for Prime Minister Mark Carney, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre continues to face high unfavourable numbers.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberal Party holds 43% support, maintaining a 9-point lead over the Conservatives, who stand at 34%. The New Democratic Party (NDP) follows with 10%, while the Bloc Québécois holds 6% nationally. The Green Party and the People's Party (PPC) are tied at 2% each.
"The latest numbers show a consistent advantage for the Liberals," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "While the Conservatives remain competitive in Western Canada, the Liberal lead in Ontario and Atlantic Canada provides a significant buffer."
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from February 2 to February 14, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. Each week, the rolling survey refreshes the sample by adding 500 participants and removing 500. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:
"It looks like we are settling into a new normal with the Liberals consistently posting strong leads over the Conservatives. So far, we don't see very much movement."
"Regionally, the Liberals show strong support in Atlantic Canada (59%) and Ontario (47%), while the Conservatives maintain their stronghold in Alberta with 53%. Demographically, the Liberals see their highest levels of support among voters aged 50-64 (51%), whereas the Conservatives are most competitive in the 18-34 and 35-49 age brackets, where they are tied or close to the Liberals."
"Prime Minister Mark Carney continues to enjoy strong public support, with a national approval rating of 63%. Only 32% of Canadians disapprove of his performance, while 5% remain unsure. Carney’s approval is highest in Ontario (70%) and among those aged 65 and older (68%)."
"In contrast, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre faces a net unfavourable rating. Currently, 39% of Canadians view him favourably, while 52% hold an unfavourable view. His highest favourability is found in Alberta (55%) and among voters aged 18–34 (47%)."
Detailed Poll Report:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.